ES Journal - 2019/2020

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NQurious said:
I think the move to 3K is upon us possibly. Target for the next day or two 3015 to 3040.
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2991 - 3110 minimum target, 3015 - 3040 if she gets frisky

Anything can happen and the outlook can change in an instant, though it probably won't. Betting the SPX makes its high today before it makes its low has about a 20 point edge so selling, if and when it develops, should not surprise. A 20 point edge is huge, but it is also not a sure thing.
 
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Laissez Faire said:
8 times since 2008 including yesterday.

As such - it's my view that yesterday's late session reversal was a distortion or some kind of insignificant 'news shock' seeing how the markets held up so far overnight.

It's possible with one more day of consolidation - but we're going higher by end of week. Most likely, IMO. :)
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Just this month alone the SPX has made it's low last a number of times and probably four or five of those days in the last hour of the day. There was no distortion, and PA played out just as it had to all the way to the 2908's printing as the low but only after the Globex close & re-open to allow ES bulls to buy below Tuesday's low for Wednesday's rally - all while the SPX preserved its low of the week from Monday.

A beauty to behold if ever there was one.

As to however it is you are defining the stats you are tracking, your "rare" stats, if it is indeed "rare," behavior, it would appear that it's rarity is statistically insignificant, which is a better way to interpret it rather than attributing it to some "distortion" .. or otherwise inexplicable disturbance in the force.
 
NQurious said:
Just this month alone the SPX has made it's low last a number of times and probably four or five of those days in the last hour of the day.
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You didn't get it correctly.

The specific pattern is that we made a new HOD in the last 75 minutes followed by a new LOD going into the Close.

That has only happened one time earlier this year, one time in 2019, etc.

Simply selling into the Close or printing the LOD in the last hour is of course not a rare pattern.
 
Hmmmm.
The troops are amassing. They got to the top of the (2975) VeeZee wall the night before last but we beat em back.
Like the Alamo, but Santa Anna's showing some resolve this AM. He's pissed.

Nowhere is it written a crowded trade can't get more crowded.
Let Santa Anna do his thing.
Just remember.. he died penniless.
 
trading_jean said:
Never knew Texas was part of Mexico in the 19th century. The things one learns on a trading forum.
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The territory known as Texas flew under a number of flags including French and Spanish. The Texans were OK with oversight by Mexico until they began to raise taxes and impose restrictions. General Santa Anna of Mexico crushed a much smaller militia at the Battle of the Alamo, killing everyone. Sam Houston put together an army of Texas volunteers and routed Santa Anna at the Battle of San Jacinto, just outside modern downtown Houston and established the Republic of Texas which was the only independent republic of what became modern US.
 
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Laissez Faire said:
You didn't get it correctly.

The specific pattern is that we made a new HOD in the last 75 minutes followed by a new LOD going into the Close.
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To be fair, all I had to go on were your words which made no mention of a new HOD followed by new LOD in last 75 minutes of session ...

Laissez Faire said:
Reversing to a new low this late in the session is a fairly rare pattern.
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It is indeed rare for new high and a new low to occur not only late in the day, but anytime after 11 AM, as there is, I believe, a 92% chance that either the high or the low is in by 11 AM. It did happen, however, on May 5th, and if you go back I believe I mentioned several times high odds we make a new low before th close even as the market was trading at its highs.

But in the end, I would reiterate that it is statistically insignificant.

Both yesterday and on May 5th and I'm sure on any other day it has happened in the past and happens again in the future there is a discernible context available before the event, and it does not depend on external distortions for explanation, though in hindsight they can be used as catalytic explanations.

For example, today is a day where I would not be surprised by the same late day high, new lows in in last hour scenario. We have the FOMC today ... might that be used as the explanatory catalyst by financial journalists and entertainers? Almost definitely! But here we are more than an hour before the open, and I can say that there is a 60/40 chance we see the high first, low last, and that while that high may occur early, it is like to happen late. So if that scenario plays out, do we say it was the result of a distortion caused by news or is it due to the technical position and condition of the market?

And, lastly, there is a 40% chance an entirely different scenario plays out.
 
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