ES Journal - 2019/2020

[trading_jean]

Long right now at 2780...
we'll close green tomorrow.

Impressive call VZ. I understand a long for a bounce there, but predicting with conviction we would end the day in green at that exact moment makes it clear to me there is a lot I can and should learn.

 

[NQurious]

may I ask what made you take this long?

 

[hafez50]

Mohamad el Erian had an article on cnbc ( i've read many in the last 2 weeks) how the disconnect in the stock mkt vs the economy could cause social unrest . Headlines " The biggest stock mkt month in 45 yrs " vs " 32 million file for unemployment worse that than the great depression". Its brought to the forefront the rich never suffer as the masses are going to hurting . Its in all's interest to make sure the rich suffer like the masses this time . To be honest the mkt should be at 1800 max right now .

 

[Relentless]

Long right now at 2780...
we'll close green tomorrow.

Long 2785 here ... looking to take some at 2885 sometime tomorrow.

EDIT: This was the original post in case anyone thinks this was after the fact ...

You guys are sick.

Thanks for...

 

[Noone123]

It just seems too obvious of a trade, that's what bothers me.
Imagine what would happen if a tanker was sunk in the Straits of Hormuz. The initial spike would lead to a squeeze of epic proportions. There's a lot of bad actors in this world. I wouldn't put it past Saudi or Russia one bit, orchestrating it to look like Iran.

I dunno.... I'd be careful shorting it though. One could wake up with their stop triggered and find their cover price north of $45.

Commodities are pretty much events driven. There are upside and downside risks. In absence of crazy events, I don't think we are over supply at the moment.

 

[syswizard]

Commodities are pretty much events driven.

Of course. Recent event has been OPEC (or GLOPEC) has reduced production. Market is hoping this will relieve pressure on inventory levels.

There are upside and downside risks.

Absolutely. Upside: inventory levels start to go down Downside: no more inventory space remaining...crude production must stop

In absence of crazy events,

Trump hasn't played his "cards" yet. He is waiting for the right moment.

I don't think we are over supply at the moment.

See attached.

 

[schizo]

Short 38.75 sl 42

 

[vanzandt]

I don't think we are over supply at the moment.

That one is going to require a little elaboration. On what are you basing this? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just asking.

 

[schizo]

That one is going to require a little elaboration. On what are you basing this? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just asking.

I think @Noone123 might be referring to the weekly EIA report per below chart. As you can see, last week's inventory came in far below the forecast number:

 

[vanzandt]

Impressive call VZ. I understand a long for a bounce there, but predicting with conviction we would end the day in green at that exact moment makes it clear to me there is a lot I can and should learn.

You have to understand.... after 30+ years, its all psychology.
I wish I could explain it but I can't. It encompasses a gillion things.