Speaking of... B1 hasn't chimed in since Thursday AM. Hmmm.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Nice write-up NQ. I don't doubt that everything you've said here is true.
I guess the big question in my mind is: What's the best route for one to correctly acquire said skills?
My goals are: 1) to learn to read price action as it is and not as I would have it like you said, 2) to understand / utilize the application of probabilities / statistics, and 3) develop a process that has the two function as a whole along with solid risk management. This should breed a positive long term sustainable outcome.
I have the drive and work ethic to get to the endgame, but there is so much bad information and snake oil in this line of work. Those successful such as yourself typically aren't willing to mentor which I can completely understand by the way for multiple reasons. You could get lost for many a years barking up the wrong trees even if you understand what it is that would likely get you to where you need to be (obviously for me I feel its the ability to read charts and understand / apply + probability / statistical data).
I do like the positive message you and @speedo typically exemplify about success through putting the time and work in. But again if one isn't setting into motion a good foundational education blueprint its easy to get lost in wave after wave of useless drivel. The university route for example, you put in the work to collect your degree and then build your real world experience from there. For the most part this is a straightforward process. See what I'm getting at?
All that being said - what would you tell someone (worthy of your time spent) that wants to learn what you have in order to become successful like you have?
** Sorry for the long write-up. I'm a bit of a perfectionist and an over-thinker (obviously
). Shoot me. But I'm trying to do right and avoid years of dead trails due to poor foundation."Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime." - Maimonides (since we've been tossing quotes lately!)
It's crazy to say that this market is not following technical rules. Every properly identified S/R level has been consistently providing tradable reactions this entire move up giving both long and short opportunities.
Tricky part is dropping the Bias and just taking what the reactions give you...not what you want to get from them.
Tricky part is dropping the Bias and just taking what the reactions give you...not what you want to get from them.
Mmm hmm. So you are looking at a break lasting 11-22 days. So what will that TA do for you on Monday morning? Will it help you snipe a few points in a direction on Monday, or are you going to swing for a month?
The fack is all this TA talk about fibbo levels if you will not act on it?
You should just do what I do. Swing long at ATH, and hold onto it until it drops 30%, and sell. I am the master of doing that. I should sell a course on it, be an educator.
Let me preface this by saying what follows is my answer to your question. It is not the only answer. But it is the only answer that I know to give.
1a) There is no substitute for a period of sustained market observation with no thoughts of trading or looking for "set ups." Live with the 5 minute bar interval real time chart for 30 days, 20-22 market sessions - ONE MONTH. Just watch it, tick by tick, bell to bell. You should take notes but only when something strikes you. Do not put undue pressure on yourself to have frequent flashes of insight. Insight is the objective and it will come. But don't force it. Watch price, its rhythms, its flow. I say "tick by tick" to emphasize that the bar is merely a collation of data. Price is live, it is flow, and it should not be confused with being the "the bars."
You should journal this activity. And I do not mean open an ET journal - I mean get yourself a notebook and a pen or pencil and physically (not electronically) journal your thoughts and observations daily - even if your only thought is you have no idea what you just watched for the last 390 minutes. The objective is not to identify "set ups." The objective is to learn the character of the market you wish to trade. That is all. And the ES does have character.
I cannot stress just how strongly I believe in the superiority of the 5 minute bar interval to all others specifically for learning the character of the ES market. I also cannot stress enough that there is no substitute for this exercise of simply watching the market unfold tick by tick, minute by minute, hour after hour for six hours and 45 minutes each day for 20 RTH sessions. None. But nearly no one does it. Skip this step and go to the next ones and you might still manage to put together a plan and succeed. But skip this step and no matter what success you might muster in the future, it will be a fraction of what could have been.
Also, more bars are not better. Resist the temptation to look at any bar interval less than 5 minutes. And yes, for swing trading big picture is monthly, weekly, daily, 240 minute and 60 minute ... but specifically for learning the character of the ES relatively quickly where the price action will correlate with larger bar intervals over longer timeframes, the 5 minute is king.
1b) Co-requisite: Read Zen and the Markets by Edward Toppel. Start the meditation exercises now. It will augment your fitness for the mental and emotional pressures of trading.
AFTER completing 1a and 1b:
2) Read The Trading Rule that Can Make you Rich by Edward Dobson
3) Study Al Brooks's Trading Course. What will you get out of his course? Take the exercise I suggest above - sit and observe 20 to 22 market sessions bell to bell of simply observing price action, one month of market observation - and multiply it by 60 - that is the knowledge and experience you can pour into your brain by intently studying Brooks's price action course. But you will get even more out of his course if you do the exercise in step one above first.
3) Read Trading the Measured Move by David Halsey ... My only complaint about this book is that the charts are nearly useless. They suck. Terrible. But the material is invaluable to understanding the underlying structure of the ES as it is exploited by today's algorithmic trading systems.
You can do the above and, assuming you have the mental and emotional fitness for active trading, and you'll be running a profitable operation in six months time. Or, don't do any of it, and instead do what everyone else here does, and 20 years later you'll be like some here who tell us that they are (finally) "just getting started."
Prove to me you've gone through all the above, and I'll help you put it all together. But do all the above, and you may not need me to help you put it together. But if you do all that and you feel you need a little more direction, you'll get it.
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Ah thanks man, that means a lot coming from you - I read every post of yours as you clearly know what you are doing
I certainly don't know NQ outside of this ET community, but in my years of lurking here (since 2008), you will rarely find this level of openness on these streets. I hope folks take heed. I'll be picking up some of those book recommendations for sure, and I can certainly attest to the power of observing the 5 min time frame.
When I started during the financial crisis, I thought I had a plan until market hit me in the nuts. I was down ~10k before I could realize what hit me, and luckily I was smart enough to quickly realize that my plan was shit. So I sat back and did what I've been trained to do: Observe! I don't know why I started with the 5 mins, but I did. I then tried to see if I gained the same level of insights on higher time frames. Nothing was as clear as the 5 mins IMO. I usually stay on the higher time frames for bigger swings except for a few scalps, but when I'm having trouble reading PA, I revert back to 5 mins to find my mojo.
Just my 2 cents (Probably worth less than 2 cents on the open market)
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