ES Journal - 2019/2020

[NQurious]

We've still got a couple hundred points to go before resistance comes in.

We have some stiff resistance 2929-2934 felicia.

 

[nillionaire]

Crude oil finally finding some support around the $14-$15 level on news of production cut-backs.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/4/29/oil-prices-rise-as-production-cuts-begin-worldwide
Expect volatility to continue as funds bail-out of the June contract.
EDIT: make that $16.....it just jumped $1 in 15 minutes.

June contract is up over 60% in 2 days and spot price hasn't budged at all, still at $8: https://www.investing.com/currencies/wti-usd

In the next 3 weeks, spot has to jump significantly or June has to come down significantly.

 

[syswizard]

Are you trading oil? Seems interested in oil for last 2 weeks.

Yes, interesting market....lots of drama right now. Day of reckoning coming up for settlement of the June contract.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Open Gap at 2970,50. Wouldn't be surprised to see us trade up there today, but I'm a bit nervous on the long side today, although all time frames looks pretty bullish here.

Internals are strong, too.

 

[Picaso]

Open Gap at 2970,50. Wouldn't be surprised to see us trade up there today, but I'm a bit nervous on the long side today, although all time frames looks pretty bullish here.

Internals are strong, too.

Thank you for your analysis, LF.
We've had some tradable swings, but, imho we're not going to go through the 30's before the FED, so I'd say we trade in a range, slightly down for the next 3 hours. Then, as IBdude said, the FED will come out saying that water is wet and...

Who knows. But there should be some volatility, even if it's not one-directional.

 

[syswizard]

spot price hasn't budged at all, still at $8:

Strange....my source is indicating spot WTI at Cushing, OK to be $14.24.

 

[nillionaire]

Strange....my source is indicating spot WTI at Cushing, OK to be $14.24.

That would make more sense, I guess I need a new source.

 

[Picaso]

That would make more sense, I guess I need a new source.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_D.htm
I think you have the price from the 21st

 

[Laissez Faire]

We've had some tradable swings, but, imho we're not going to go through the 30's before the FED, so I'd say we trade in a range, slightly down for the next 3 hours. Then, as IBdude said, the FED will come out saying that water is wet and...

Who knows. But there should be some volatility, even if it's not one-directional.

Or just keep inching higher...slowly.

Even though I see the long side from here, I'm not trading it. Just managed to squeeze 2 points out of a long which was 4 points in the red, but took profits as soon as I could as I lack conviction to hold.

Probably just going to call it a day from here. FED can be a non-event or it could produce some crazy volatility. I expect good news from the FED today, i.e., "We've got your back".

 

[Relentless]

I expect good news from the FED today, i.e., "We've got your back".

Fed upside being priced in imho. Just look at how much we are up in last week (since 21st).

If anything I'd hold long and get flat / short going into the meeting itself.