ES Journal - 2019/2020

[EsKiller]

Its the first time in 10 yrs your scared to take a short? We dropped 60 pts vertical off the open basically today.We've had several 20-40 pt draw downs the last 2 weeks. How could you be more scared to short now than from Nov-Feb when we grinded up 400 es with hardly any down moves?

B/c in this extended rally, I'm not tick fu#king for 2 points. I'm looking for 10-40 point moves. When volatility calms down and conditions change, my trading plan changes. Reason why i've stayed in this game so long successfully is b/c I adapt to the price structure.

And the only big dumps we get as of late are distributive in nature after a big rally. For me, those are difficult to determine how far down it will go. My trading plan has a much easier time determining where to buy. I do trade short, but under specific conditions.

I missed the opening bell today. lately I've been trading the overnight and afternoon sessions. Even if i was awake for the opening bell, I wouldn't have caught the move down. i did however catch a portion of this move up

 

[hafez50]

B/c in this extended rally, I'm not tick fu#king for 2 points. I'm looking for 10-40 point moves. When volatility calms down and conditions change, my trading plan changes. Reason why i've stayed in this game so long successfully is b/c I adapt to the price structure.

And the only big dumps we get as of late are distributive in nature after a big rally. For me, those are difficult to determine how far down it will go. My trading plan has a much easier time determining where to buy. I do trade short, but under specific conditions.

I missed the opening bell today. lately I've been trading the overnight and afternoon sessions. Even if i was awake for the opening bell, I wouldn't have caught the move down. i did however catch a portion of this move up

100 ways to skin a cat. No question the long side is easier right now but theres plenty of 10 pt plus short moves most days . To each his own

 

[schizo]

Not trying to criticize, but whenever i see you post looks like you're fighting the trend by going short. Is this working for you ??

Thats asking for trouble in this manipulating fed buying environment. Hell, I've changed my strategy around so that when the 240 or 60 min charts are trending, I won't even consider a scalp short. After more than a decade of trading ES for a living, this is the first time I'm actually scared to take any type of short in this market. So scared that I've modified my trading plan where I'm long around 80% of the time. Its pretty pathetic, but I'm absolutely killing it. Im willing to bet the majority of these hedge funds and big banks are in the same boat.....hence the insane run up.

Not true. Go back and read my posts. You will see that I trade both long and short. Anyway, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think I'll be posting my trades here much longer anyway.

BTW do you post your trades in realtime? You should try it sometime.

 

[Overnight]

Okay, I would normally consider one a paranoid lunatic when I see a post like this, but I've been getting stopped out to the tick A LOT, especially after posting the stops here. It's really hard for me to brush this off as a mere coincidence. Yesterday was especially troubling (see the chart below).

And these stops you see in the chart weren't technically important levels either. For instance 81.25 was RANDOMLY chosen out of thin air. And yet prices reversed immediately after hitting them.

From now on, I will only post day trades. And also I might omit posting my stops for obvious reasons. If you have problem with that, then well so be it. Otherwise, I'll stop posting altogether.

PS. Why are there sooooo many bots tracking this forum?!!

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It only seems like a conspiracy when it goes against you. Look back through your trading history and see how many times your target was right at that tick, before it fell away. Felt good, didn't it? But you may have forgotten those. I've had days on both sides of the equation. They both suck equally.

I'd rather take profit or lose on a stop in the higher or lower RANGE of the move, than to the TICK. Those are the worst.

You only notice what hurts the most.

There is no cabal.

 

[Relentless]

Wow. I was actually thinking earlier today how nice it was to see some friendly comradery in here.

People tossing out helpful reads Accountability with trade specs.
Guys answering questions to people that are newer or just don't understand some concepts.

Then suddenly out of nowhere this thread reads as toxic if not more toxic than the rest of ET.

Shit makes me sick...

 

[schizo]

It only seems like a conspiracy when it goes against you. Look back through your trading history and see how many times your target was right at that tick, before it fell away. Felt good, didn't it? But you may have forgotten those. I've had days on both sides of the equation. They both suck equally.

I'd rather take profit or lose on a stop in the higher or lower RANGE of the move, than to the TICK. Those are the worst.

You only notice what hurts the most.

There is no cabal.

Listen, I hear ya. I even said at the outset that I would normally consider something like this to be loony. But you know what? After trading for nearly 30 years, I'm pretty confident with my trades. I can also sniff out some weird bat shit that ordinary traders cannot and this smells pretty nasty to me. Anyway, I don't wanna drag this out any further than I need to. I'll just stop posting trades here and everything is fine. Case closed.

BTW go back and read my post again and, in particular, look at the chart.

 

[schizo]

Wow. I was actually thinking earlier today how nice it was to see some friendly comradery in here.

People tossing out helpful reads Accountability with trade specs.
Guys answering questions to people that are newer or just don't understand some concepts.

Then suddenly out of nowhere this thread reads as toxic if not more toxic than the rest of ET.

Shit makes me sick...

Relax. Everything is all fine.

 

[Relentless]

Not true. Go back and read my posts. You will see that I trade both long and short. Anyway, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think I'll be posting my trades here much longer anyway.

BTW do you post your trades in realtime? You should try it sometime.

Hope you don't quit posting btw because i find your content useful.

Sorry you've had bad luck with to-the-tick stopouts lately.

Stick with it.

 

[EsKiller]

Not true. Go back and read my posts. You will see that I trade both long and short. Anyway, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think I'll be posting my trades here much longer anyway.

BTW do you post your trades in realtime? You should try it sometime.

Was talking to a few trader buddies of mine. It was pretty convenient timing over the past month and change when ES was getting ready to push down, and a nice convenient Trump Pump announcement comes in to send the market to the sky when there was a lot of stops to get run. That adds to my hesitancy to add shorts when it feels like someone is monitoring the charts and telling him the exact moment to put the announcement up there. happened a few times while I was in trades or about to get in one. IMO they are playing some games.

 

[nillionaire]

Okay, I would normally consider one a paranoid lunatic when I see a post like this, but I've been getting stopped out to the tick A LOT, especially after posting the stops here. It's really hard for me to brush this off as a mere coincidence. Yesterday was especially troubling (see the chart below).

And these stops you see in the chart weren't technically important levels either. For instance 81.25 was RANDOMLY chosen out of thin air. And yet prices reversed immediately after hitting them.

From now on, I will only post day trades. And also I might omit posting my stops for obvious reasons. If you have problem with that, then well so be it. Otherwise, I'll stop posting altogether.

PS. Why are there sooooo many bots tracking this forum?!!

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If I am not mistaken, the 81.25 was hit at 3:50pm which is the MOC that has been causing drastic moves every day. Just unfortunate that it happened to be right where your stop was.