ES Journal - 2019/2020

Status
Not open for further replies.
FriskyCat said:
IMHO, I think the "tail" wags the dog far more nowadays than it did back in the Cook, LBR, Schwartz glory days. 3 OpEx's per week + Monthly/Quarterly OpEx, VIX futs/options, etc..(plus all the passive investing, etc). Even Marty went on record a few years ago saying he doesn't trade the outrights any longer, moved to options selling.

Some of the really clean patterns that I saw back say 15-20 years ago no longer really exist, lots of bar overlaps, "crazy Ivan's", etc...

Just my observation, I'm sure I'll get heat for just mentioning it.
More...

What you're basically saying is that there are less clean trends and less breakouts? I don't doubt that at all.

It can be explained by a lot of things - I believe. Increased participation/competition/liquidity and HFT for one.

Even in some of the older Schwager interviews there were guys complaining about how markets were trending less in the 80s compared to the earlier decades.

I also recall Schwartz saying that.
 
FriskyCat said:
IMHO, I think the "tail" wags the dog far more nowadays than it did back in the Cook, LBR, Schwartz glory days. 3 OpEx's per week + Monthly/Quarterly OpEx, VIX futs/options, etc..(plus all the passive investing, etc). Even Marty went on record a few years ago saying he doesn't trade the outrights any longer, moved to options selling.

Some of the really clean patterns that I saw back say 15-20 years ago no longer really exist, lots of bar overlaps, "crazy Ivan's", etc...

Just my observation, I'm sure I'll get heat for just mentioning it.
More...

Spot on FC ...
 
FriskyCat said:
My experience has been that if/when I post commentary about how or why the patterns have changed etc, I get unsolicited "advice" about how I should do this or that. Seriously, it's ingrained in some people to reply that way.
More...

Yeah. Humans are a stubborn race.

Makes me think of the successful traders that have told stories about taking a family member or close friend under their wing to pay their success forward. Wasn't long before the ever so wise trainee made sure to let the master know how wrong he was. So it goes without saying most of them said F*** it before too long. Unreal.

If I was in that spot I'd sleep in their damn yard in a tent for years and give up all non-essentials to acquire that knowledge / skill set. Some people are just anti-opportunistic at their core and don't want to learn - they just want to be right. :banghead::banghead:
 
Laissez Faire said:
Updated statistical analysis says it's highly likely we'll sell into the Close today. I'm conflicted though - especially with NQ doing what it does.
More...

Shouldn't have ran that analysis. LOL. I've been bullish since the LOD - but that analysis + the visual perception of a bear flag for the last hour got the best of me.

Not sure what the rest of the day will bring and just not getting a good read today. As long as we're staying below the Open from here - we should close below 2805. Normally. A strong swing above the current HOD at 2810,50 negates that obviously.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top