ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Buy1Sell2]

Over the next 2 days, I look for a re-challenge and break through of the 2650 area. Normally on a payroll week, you might see the market tentative, however this Friday's numbers are meaningless and are expected to not reflect the full loss of payrolls. Bad news is already priced in here and we will head up. We did also have a trend change recently to the upside. Looking good.

Bad news already factored in. We would have to have a new, surprise catalyst. If this were under a Hillary or Obama administration with massive new regulation, the market would be at 1000 right now.

A fed governor predicted 32 percent unemployment and yet the Izzy Bottom continues to hold. We would need a new surprise catalyst to drive prices lower. Right now, the bad news in factored into the market.

 

[schizo]

Short 34.25

SL 38.25

+7ish

Out 27

 

[schizo]

Nice, 3 in a row, congrats.

I still see air (no resistance) above 2830, and we're only up 1,5%

Thanks. It's 4 now.

 

[Hivey]

Here's a little conspiracy theory you can chew on. Suppose the FED approached the primary dealers and hedge funds (or even HFTs) and made a sweet proposal that they couldn't refuse. It goes something like this. We will take on any toxic losses on your books if you will drive up the equity market. Some people think PPT is made up BS. While that might be so, this is certainly a feasible alternative to PPT.

Exactly my thought. I really believe Trump made some deal with the biggest hedge funds. It's IMO no coincidence we started going back up on March 24, the day after Trump & Pence had a meeting with Citadel, Third Point, Blackstone, Vista Equity, etc on the state of the economy & market

 

[syswizard]

Don't see how the unemployment numbers can be interpreted bullish.

Market likely anticipating even worse numbers.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Headed out for 18---just going to let the market run---talk to you soon---

 

[schizo]

Damn it, missed the short entry by a tick.

 

[schizo]

Other than short being squeezed, I don't understand this mornings rally though. Don't see how the unemployment numbers can be interpreted bullish.

It came down from the previous week. It's still a crappy number but, as they say, the market likes to keep its head in the ass as long as possible.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I really hope so! Did not saw this rally coming. My positions definitely need at least a small drop
Other than short being squeezed, I don't understand this mornings rally though. Don't see how the unemployment numbers can be interpreted bullish.

IMHO, if you're a technical trader - you really shouldn't spend too much time interpreting those numbers. In the end - what matters is what market participants do as it shows up in price. Every bad number lately have been bought...

I've been technically bullish since the 6th of April and unless today reverses hard (unlikely IMO) and closes below 2800 - I expect us to trade above 2871 by tomorrow.

 

[hafez50]

Market likely anticipating even worse numbers.

I disagree. Several weeks we had worse #'s and the mkt still ran. The truth is the market doesn't care what the #'s are . The fed's thrown Trillions at this and there's no were else to put your money. Oil collapsing should have scared the crap out of the mkt and it didn't . Interest rates zero, oil collapsed, cd's zero. Who cares if stocks trading at 2 times what their worth? Your chasing an asset for appreciation for days or weeks . Greater fool theory .