ES Journal - 2019/2020

Picaso · Apr 20, 2020

Anyone hearing anything about rebalancing (reversing - partly - the shift from bonds to stocks of last month) between now and the end of the month?

schizo · Apr 20, 2020

What could be ahead for the crude

NQurious · Apr 20, 2020

Picaso said:
GOP will repeal the 22nd amendment

I doubt that will happen - if anything the public will start to clamor for term limits for Senate and House. Twelve years of welfare/politician is ore than enough - 8 if President

DarthSidious · Apr 20, 2020

trading_jean said:
I can imagine a lot of private traders bought close to 0 because it was 'risk-free'.

Unlikely. Today was May settlement, and most, if not all retail FCMs require you to be flat by day before. We retails could only gawk at the CL porn today, but thankfully no ability to partake

NQurious · Apr 20, 2020

Other than oil trading to -WTF, the other surprise for me was that we did not quite get to Friday's high before the selling took over. We had a very nice trend day going there for awhile.

Picaso · Apr 20, 2020

NQurious said:
I doubt that will happen - if anything the public will start to clamor for term limits for Senate and House. Twelve years of welfare/politician is ore than enough - 8 if President

I was half-joking (*half*)... I just think that even though this guy lies through his teeth, when he said that he could shoot someone in the street and wouldn't lose any votes, he had a point. Kind of like that guy who said that the only way for him to lose would be if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.

schizo · Apr 20, 2020

schizo said:
Brain teaser: Just how the f*ck can you settle a negative price? Am I being paid by the broker now that I'm holding at -35?

NQurious said:
It will settle as it always does - the difference between you entry and the settle price.

Thinking back on this some more...

Suppose I went long at -35 and decide to take delivery. How would this show up on the books? Will I be credited rather than debited?

syswizard · Apr 20, 2020

After today's outcome, I don't think these guys have a choice now:

World Oil analysis: Texas Railroad commissioners face difficult decision on prorationing
The three Railroad commissioners are faced with what may be the major decision of their professional lives—whether to prorate or not. And, in tandem, the fate of many industry companies and individuals’ jobs could be hanging in the balance.

The commissioners must vote to cut production via proration. Otherwise, the June WTI contract is going to go out just like the May contract.

schizo · Apr 20, 2020

syswizard said:
After today's outcome, I don't think these guys have a choice now:

The commissioners must vote to cut production via proration. Otherwise, the June WTI contract is going to go out just like the May contract.

Dude, you're forgetting one thing. We're awash with glut of oil that are ALREADY in the storage. Unless we first dump all those oils in the storage, cutting production will not help. Maybe they should have done that a month ago?

trading_jean · Apr 20, 2020

DarthSidious said:
Unlikely. Today was May settlement, and most, if not all retail FCMs require you to be flat by day before. We retails could only gawk at the CL porn today, but thankfully no ability to partake

Actually I knew that you have to be approved to trade the last day of the contract (prove you are able to accept delivery), but reading a post that claimed he bought at $0.1 stating 'free money' made me draw the conclusion without thinking it through. Thanks for making it clear!