ES Journal - 2019/2020

[NQurious]

Small caps have been lagging badly. Today R2K is limit up.

Oil is going to $12 nothing B1 or $hitlizard can do about it.

The largest hedge fund in the world, backed by their ability lever up and actually print money can save stock prices for the investor class, but they cannot save oil. The Fed Reserve Hedge Fund can only work where values are based on the manufactured demand of emotion and greed. Oil is too real.

SPX 2934.49 is the bull above/bear below line in the sand imo. I'll see you there.

Weird world.

Have capital, will trade.

 

[FriskyCat]

Trump predicted there are 29 states that can begin the opening soon and several that could start the process right away

“I think you’re going to have some nice surprises over the next few days,” Trump said. “And I think it’ll be much faster than people think.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-guidelines-for-reopening-states-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-will-leave-decisions-to-governors/2020/04/16/593edd38-8022-11ea-8013-1b6da0e4a2b7_story.html

(Smells REALLY fishy. )

IMO, this is "Trade Deal going along great 2.0". I half-joked about it becoming this in another thread earlier this week, but now I'm afraid this will be drawn out and milked for every cent as well.

As far as the "timing" of this latest release...well, after cash close, one day prior to the monthly OpEx is all you really need to know. All of that gamma in the market and forced hedging, especially after a really convincing bear trap with Nasdaq falling off the cliff mid-day and Russell continued weakness (now that's been limit up all night).

Yes, very "fishy"

 

[FriskyCat]

CL falling off a cliff

Yes, May contract. June and onwards still look like they are holding above the lows of a few weeks back.

 

[hafez50]

Read the zero hedge article. This has been used in china for 2 months with little results . Some scam media outlet called stat something reported it. As you said this sounds like the 20 scam china deal's over 18 months . All i know is we were told the curve was fattening out on the virus and almost 5k americans died in last 24 hrs almost double the previous record. They can find this or that vaccine or whatever but peoples attitudes and behaviors have changed for ever. First thing is millions more will be working from home thus commercial real estate is screwed going forward.People will get used to austerity more so long term spending will be down . Gyms ,restaurants,movie theaters ,airplanes, cruise ships . Even if 10% of people change their behaviors its a huge hit to businesses. That means long term growth rates will be lower thus stock prices are way to high . But as traders this is meaningless but for long term investors its big .

 

[Hivey]

I would go wherever the market goes, but what's the likelihood that this is a bull trap? My gut tells me there's something wrong with this picture.

Feel the same. In my view it's just too much, too quick and not sustainable considering state of the US and Global economy. NQ again at January levels or AMZN at ATH is insane. Consumer spending will go down (look at unemployment), hence so will company sales. Smart money who bought in at 2300 levels will surely be taking profits selling into the current FOMO. Unless the PPT or a consortium of hedge funds has set themselves to buy up everything, I see this going down again.

That being said, I do feel the strength of the current market, so will not short outright. Am looking into setting up some (relatively cheap) far OTM put calendar spreads, so I make bank when I'm right, but also don't loose too much in case this really goes to the moon

 

[hafez50]

Yes, May contract. June and onwards still look like they are holding above the lows of a few weeks back.

It looks like the May contract expires today or Monday. The June is trading at $25 or $7 above the about to expire May. Whats spot price? Why hasn't the June contract greatly narrowed the spread with the May contract. So that means Monday they'll be quoting the $25 June contract? I'm confused . People will say wow oil was just $18 and now its $25? Makes no sense why the may and June premium did narrow to maximum $1 before the May contract is gone.

 

[vanzandt]

It looks like the May contract expires today or Monday. The June is trading at $25 or $7 above the about to expire May. Whats spot price? Why hasn't the June contract greatly narrowed the spread with the May contract. So that means Monday they'll be quoting the $25 June contract? I'm confused . People will say wow oil was just $18 and now its $25? Makes no sense why the may and June premium did narrow to maximum $1 before the May contract is gone.

WTI spot is $25

I said this last month when oil dropped 30% in a day.... Trump might impose tariffs. That's my guess, and that's what's holding the price up. If that's the case, then no more "true market" and oil will head right back up to $45 and B1 can say Bingo. I wouldn't be short CL right now.

 

[vanzandt]

I shorted Apple up here at $288
Just 200 shares though.
I'll take 200 more at the bell if it spikes.

You guys see Apple?
Futures up 2.5% across the board... Apple is down $2.70 pre-market.
As I said down in the stocks forum, its a good short.
I still think it'll see $293ish before the ER though.

 

[vanzandt]

Look at Apple.... just screaming for all the suckers to buy in.
"Holy cow, the market is up 2.5% and apple is down! I better buy some and ride it up."

 

[keesa]

Look at Apple.... just screaming for all the suckers to buy in.
"Holy cow, the market is up 2.5% and apple is down! I better buy some and ride it up."

last time I checked, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX all down