ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Laissez Faire said:
Overbought on what basis?

It seems to me that overbought (and staying overbought) is the default state of this market most of the time. :)
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That is a good point we're all not measuring overbought in the same way. However, I am assuming someone saying the term overbought has backtested and seen live how their overbought works.

For example mine is based on momentum and velocity of the movement. I know when to expect "x" amount of overbought bars to be retraced and I know roughly what price of the bar it will retrace to and etc. There's also different expectations for the overbought to be retraced based upon the underlining strength of the product.
 
An overbought ES for me was April 6th when 2Max downside = 1 Min upside. Well ... I don’t have a proper threshold but when we have 3pts up for 1 pt down ... it’s over my head xD
 
See, just absolutely very min supply to cover your short. Now anyone adding short if you didn't scalp already under pressure of potentially another short cover rally.
 
Were up 28% in a little over 2 weeks. Almost every company in the country is shut down for a least the next month. Buying patterns will be different when things even get a little better. We just had the greatest bull of all time of 11 long yrs. In reality were hardly off the highs of 3k( that was a bogus squeeze to 3400 of 2 months)Will the infection come back after the relax shelter in place? The bottom line human contact has changed between people going forward for a long while. All this uncertainty means stocks should trade at much lower multiples. So in reality the mkt is as expensive on new normalized earnings as it was at ath's.
 
hafez50 said:
Were up 28% in a little over 2 weeks. Almost every company in the country is shut down for a least the next month. Buying patterns will be different when things even get a little better. We just had the greatest bull of all time of 11 long yrs. In reality were hardly off the highs of 3k( that was a bogus squeeze to 3400 of 2 months)Will the infection come back after the relax shelter in place? The bottom line human contact has changed between people going forward for a long while. All this uncertainty means stocks should trade at much lower multiples. So in reality the mkt is as expensive on new normalized earnings as it was at ath's.
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Yes, but now add in inflation to your factor and trying to determine values becomes a lot more difficult. Not saying this year or not saying it's guaranteed, but high inflation or even hyper inflation is not completely out of the question at some point.

Stocks could go back to ATH and be worth less in nominal terms.
 
Caught 2 Shorts here on the day ... scaled 2710-15... covered 01.50 thru 05.50...

Sold opening bar OVB on 5 min for 12 handles...

In observation mode here .. patiently waiting for us to come in a bit more ... FYI, tomorrow is last trading day in the week!

anyone know what time FOMC minutes announce... 2pm ish?
 
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