I am flat too, besides just took a quick 8160.50 nq long to 8168. smaller tf buy setup. Think I am about done for the day unless we get pretty deep pb. Just going to end up potentially getting caught in a long trying to get few extra points. I don't have the same high probability of it moving higher from here, like earlier.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
I am flat too, besides just took a quick 8160.50 nq long to 8168. smaller tf buy setup. Think I am about done for the day unless we get pretty deep pb. Just going to end up potentially getting caught in a long trying to get few extra points. I don't have the same high probability of it moving higher from here, like earlier.
Unfortunately I'm not proper. lol
This market can breathe during the long weekend. Overbought short term...unlikely this momentum will last for an extended period of time. Retrace and sideway is what I am looking for. Ideally, at least a test of 2400 level, or better yet 2200.
Meant to say the terms to use so people could understand the concept under discussion since we all know about legging in and trailing out.
It’s not overbought yet IMO.
Bulls are 58/100 vs Bears are 42/100
I’ve seen worse but if we don’t proper retrace,
Towards 2670 then we’re getting overbought for sure.
We may be going to 2740 right now.
Let’s see
L 2710
stop at 2700
stop at 2700
Sometimes in this game the dummer you are the better you do. I was teaching my neighbor who got laid off how to trade. He was an engineer . Very analytical. Loved graphs and had scanners etc. One day he back tested a theory with 100's of graphs and said "oh my God this is incredible". I took 30 new graphs at 11 am . I said " tell me what happens the rest of the day" We checked at the close the accuracy. It was about 50%. I put a stock list on his wall and told him to throw a dart as its a lot less work. Also whats not said even if the graphs guided your trading they don't take into account human emotion of volatility. Will you be able to stomach a downdraft before the trade comes to fruition?
I was pretty big bear and taking a lot of shorts, but now that third party's have stepped in on behalf of the markets to defend levels and force short covering, shorting has become a lot more difficult and less profitable in general. So, I've been focusing on long setups.
Shorting overbought is very effective under the right circumstances(weak momentum), but the more positive momentum we produce day in and day out it does become less effective to short.
The other main factor is the massive amount of intervention as mentioned earlier, makes shorting overbought a lot more difficult to pull off, particularly intra-day. Of course this does mean you will likely miss the first big down move, but I think we can all agree it isn't about catching bottoms and tops.
Shorting overbought is very effective under the right circumstances(weak momentum), but the more positive momentum we produce day in and day out it does become less effective to short.
The other main factor is the massive amount of intervention as mentioned earlier, makes shorting overbought a lot more difficult to pull off, particularly intra-day. Of course this does mean you will likely miss the first big down move, but I think we can all agree it isn't about catching bottoms and tops.
- Status