ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Laissez Faire said:
Agree 100 %. Just because you have a feeling or belief that price may go up or down does not mean you can or should just jump in on that. Being able to pass on bad or uncertain trades is so important.

We've got news in 2 minutes. May see the market pick up a direction after that.
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I don't think price holds today and we see at least 2440 on ES, but the way larger charts set up going to be difficult to hold even if it does go up some for here. Would need to be a really big move up or else we'd still sell off later today / tomorrow. Of course nothing is 100% and I've been wrong before, but these are just probabilities as I understand them.

I am not against taking a long or short still, but don't currently have any setups and already locked in some points from long don't want to give them back.

EDIT: Actually not tons of risk to get long here and just put a stop few points below the ES low or something. I just don't want to lose even that lol
 
Picaso said:
Hi there, do you have a B plan in case today is a down day? (not as in doomsday, everything goes to hell in a basket, but rather as in we're down 3%, we stay negative all day and end up between 2 and 4% down).

Go get'em!
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I'm thinking we can/should see a 5 % down day today. That takes us down to 2444.

First, there's an open gap at 2466,50 / 4 % down.

There seems to be quite a few recent LODs that may act as support on the way down.

Currently just seated on my hands, but I do think we trade lower from here.
 
speedo said:
Don't put your fingers near the whirling blades kids.
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Laissez Faire said:
I'm thinking we can/should see a 5 % down day today. That takes us down to 2444.

First, there's an open gap at 2466,50 / 4 % down.

There seems to be quite a few recent LODs that may act as support on the way down.

Currently just seated on my hands, but I do think we trade lower from here.
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That's the advantage of trading profitably for years and having a lot of gains behind you. My friend is just buying these dips and selling the pops over and over. Even if it goes down 50 ES points, it doesn't effect him at all mentally or financially.
 
I am surprised to hear you claim the peak on the virus is behind in the UK S1B2.
Below are the daily increases for infections. Spain and Italy probably are in the peak or just over it if they can keep up the measures. UK is not there yet I would say.

Also: since people in hospital/IC lags infections by one or two weeks and mortality lags even later chaos in hospitals and peaks in death numbers are not in sight yet.

Also: the peak suggests things will get better a lot soon, but that is probably not the case. Total numbers will keep rising for quite a while and hospitals will have a problem quite a while as well.

Italy:
upload_2020-4-1_16-5-47.png


Spain:

upload_2020-4-1_16-6-43.png


UK:

upload_2020-4-1_16-8-17.png
 
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