ES Journal - 2019/2020

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hafez50 said:
Anyone who's traded a while should know the chances of going right back down and testing last mondays lows are very slim.
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Any why is that...?

I don't see it that way - so would be very curious to hear your rationale.

If we are to talk probabilities, it seems to me that we're in a time where we've been doing a lot of improbable price movements lately.

From Friday's Closing price - Monday's Low is only 13,92 % down. We've been doing close to that in one single day recently. So to me, it seems quite likely that we can trade that low and even break it already this coming week.

Not calling it as I don't really have a way of making such a call, but it's certainly something I can see happen in context of recent price movements.

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Laissez Faire said:
Any why is that...?

I don't see it that way - so would be very curious to hear your rationale.

If we are to talk probabilities, it seems to me that we're in a time where we've been doing a lot of improbable price movements lately.

From Friday's Closing price - Monday's Low is only 13,92 % down. We've been doing close to that in one single day recently. So to me, it seems quite likely that we can trade that low and even break it already this coming week.

Not calling it as I don't really have a way of making such a call, but it's certainly something I can see happen in context of recent price movements.

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There is a chance to retrace 50% of the entire leg down towards 2750.

We’ve already retraced 50% of the second leg.
2650.

Then heads down around 1750.
 
I agree were in unprecedented times. I think the mkt's so exhausted at the moment. Over history after a shock first wave down the second wave usually takes longer . The huge bounce up encourages people to bottom fish more as we re fall thus the decline takes longer. As i predicted Friday the futures wouldn't be down 600 pts plus like the previous 5 sundays . Weekend future show almost flat right now . Of course nobody knows the future and were all guessing.
 
This is going to be a big, volatile week. We may see a retest of low, new lows, or base built above low. If the markets rally early in the week, I will look for short setups.
Upon further analysis of my Thursday incorrect prediction of direction, I think I was off the mark by 1-2 days. This error helped me to re-align with the markets for this coming week.
 
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