ES Journal - 2019/2020

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schizo said:
Wow, I feel so damn behind the times. How realistic are their numbers when the market opens on Sunday night?

Nevertheless, these guys look more like the bucket shops from the Jesse Livermore days where they artificially printed their own tape.
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I guess that's exactly what spreadbetting companies are. Bucket shops lol.
But as a Brit, i'm very familiar with them. It's how lots of small time retail traders here get their feet wet due to being allowed to trade at very low stakes. I had about 6 spreadbet accounts with different brokers in the past, but now mainly trade futures. The change was fairly seemless

As for weekend accuracy, i'm not too sure as I haven't used that 'weekend prices' feature of the IG site before but stumbled upon it recently. But during the day, spreadbet prices tend to basically exactly mimic the futures prices and move tick for tick with them, so i'd guess it's accurate, and if just before the market reopens IG says -250, we will indeed 'open' at about -250 on the dow cash
 
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hafez50 said:
I watched it last sunday and although the pts down are not accurate it was showing within a few hundred pts on being right . So if tomorrow before the open its showing down 600 then we'll probably be down in the range of 200-800. Just more manipulation to influence the open
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If memory serves last Sunday there was a big announcement earlier in the day before the open which had an impact on the price and the gap down the IG market expected (the time I saw it before the announcement it was suggesting a big gap lower) did not occur - but then 15 minutes later we were limit down anyway.
 
In my experience talking to permabears/permabulls they always seem to be driven by a need to have correctly called the turning points as a contrarian more than anything else. They do not seem too fussed about the move that will 'make money' (at least when they talk of their views) and are more interested in calling big turning points before they happen so they can brag in some way whilst being a contrarian.

I have always considered these people somewhat odd.
 
We have too many assumptions based on fear. Let's use some numbers for analysis. We saw that China lockdown was 1 month. Let's assume 3 months for the US because we're not as good as the Chinese. If unemployment is 30 millions-to throw out some big numbers-the cost is $180B for unemployment benefits for 3 months. I am hearing the stimulus package earmarked $250B for unemployment insurance. So people will have income flowing in. Now, there the additional direct payment to people, ranging 1000 to 1200 per person. Basically, the unemployment issue is covered under 3 months of lockdown assumption. The biggest issue is whether or not small businesses will close shops permanently, since temporary closures mean that the majority of furloughed workers will be recalled quickly. Hence, the stimulus package needs to support small businesses from failing, which I hear is a component of the package. The only uncertainty is how long this virus will play out...no one knows for certain. Again, using Wuhan as the only available example, it is likely a month. But the assumption above is 3 months, which gives us a potential base scenario. There are more complexities with various sectors of the economy such as airlines, cruises, etc. We will probably need to bail them out as well. Overall, this is not the end of the world, but uncertainty does instill much fear. The smart money will step in when things are too cheap to pass on.
 
Mrtimharington your correct. The fed came did a suprise cut last sunday and they went from down 800 to up 300 in premkt opening down about 40 and tanking. I just look at them as a little roadmap for what the bias direction might be . I keep thinking wow the new can't get any worse and the news this weekend is just super gloomy . Its hard to buy anything and hold with so much chaos .
 
Noone123 said:
We have too many assumptions based on fear. Let's use some numbers for analysis. We saw that China lockdown was 1 month. Let's assume 3 months for the US because we're not as good as the Chinese. If unemployment is 30 millions-to throw out some big numbers-the cost is $180B for unemployment benefits for 3 months. I am hearing the stimulus package earmarked $250B for unemployment insurance. So people will have income flowing in. Now, there the additional direct payment to people, ranging 1000 to 1200 per person. Basically, the unemployment issue is covered under 3 months of lockdown assumption. The biggest issue is whether or not small businesses will close shops permanently, since temporary closures mean that the majority of furloughed workers will be recalled quickly. Hence, the stimulus package needs to support small businesses from failing, which I hear is a component of the package. The only uncertainty is how long this virus will play out...no one knows for certain. Again, using Wuhan as the only available example, it is likely a month. But the assumption above is 3 months, which gives us a potential base scenario. There are more complexities with various sectors of the economy such as airlines, cruises, etc. We will probably need to bail them out as well. Overall, this is not the end of the world, but uncertainty does instill much fear. The smart money will step in when things are too cheap to pass on.
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Homo Sapiens are the most adaptable creatures on the planet. I'm sure we'll figure out a way around this mess. BTW is the Wuhan lockdown over? I thought they're still in their bunkers.
 
The government is now saying 10 to 12 weeks before lockdowns end. I don't think that will be correct. These drugs and plasma that are being shown to be effective will change that prognosis. I'm bullish here on the market ----and America.
 
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In addition, warm weather in April should start curtailing this thing in a big way.---Australia--only 1365 cases and only 7 deaths. Vietnam 113 case and zero deaths.
 
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