ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

End of week commentary:

2350 was the final barrier on S&P 500. We closed this week near the low at 2304,92. That's 32,08 % from top to bottom in only 23 trading days and down - 14,97 % for the week. In fact, that makes this the worst week down in % change since this sell-off started.

NASDAQ is showing some relative strength, only down 29,77 % - while Dow Jones is the worst down 35,15 %.

The 4 week average weekly change is currently - 8,66 %.

Barring any very positive news over the weekend or a desperate government intervention of some sort, I feel very confident the selling will continue next week.

2000 would be 41,06 % from the top and - 13,23 % from this week's close.

At this rate and after breaking a key level, I'd say seeing 2100 or 2075 is very much to be expected already next week. Even 2000 can happen.

 

[NQurious]

I am bullish here.

There will be bull and bear swings to be sure. But you won't see another new all time high for about a decade or so.

 

[NQurious]

Even 2000 can happen.

I can hardly envision a multi-week, let alone multi-month rally that doesn't have the market trading at or near 2000 first, myself.

Bonds/Notes needed a second leg down and got it, interest rates will plunge to new lows this week or at least touch the 3/9 lows again.

Great time to be a trader. But I'd trade all this volatility for safety and normalcy for all. This really sucks.

 

[Noone123]

Friday close with the forced liquidation makes it harder to read. Although, it does not look like bottom is in yet. The potential 2 trillion dollar package in the work, roughly 10% of GDP or around 1 month if economy fully shutdown, may negate the effect of 1 month lockdown. So far, we can not tell if lockdown will be extended to more than 1 month, but we already have offsetting stimulus package. I would imagine if things get worse, there will probably be package 2, 3, etc. And the longer this goes on, the more likely a cure will be found. The markets just need 1 announcement of a cure even before production to stop bleeding. Basically, we have basis to buy and sell, which may translate into the markets trading in a range for now. Having said that, I think there will be a relieve rally next Monday since the stimulus is 2x the size that was previously considered.

 

[hafez50]

I agree . I’m starting to feel Friday after hrs was forced liquidation . There trying to do huge stimulus . Headlines seem about the same so far today . I smell a rally this week . Watch the bond not to see if they punish the unlimited spending and sky rates .

 

[Noone123]

There was confirmed liquidation at CME last Friday...during RTH. There's a thread on Ronin Capital as well.

 

[FriskyCat]

We do get a ton of "rallies" even on days the market pukes into the close. ES hit 2500, NQ 7600 (then dropped 700 pts).

The deadliest aspect of a bear market is evidenced by some of the guys who come on here and call the bottom an hour or two after the fact (since it will look just like every bottom they've seen between 2009-19), it might rally another 3-5% before testing that low all over again.

 

[Noone123]

Definitely did not call a bottom here. In fact I said it does not look like bottom is in. But I am more interested in day to day analysis for trading purposes.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

NQ, Mick, Spooz, Overnight, Hafez, Seiko, Schiz, Huyang, Laissez, Frisky.... ?

Come on Speedo... you're the Godfather here. Sp's ES Journal. The Izzy Bottom was my last straw. Especially when he ignored me when I asked for a #.
That's so pussified. ROYALLY pussified imo.
If you can't be a man B1... then you're just one of your "teenagers". Your thread is officially dead.

VZ, I`m not really here enough consistently to make a difference... as once this cherished
Vol is gone , so am I , as I`ll be a vapor trail when we slow down to a grind......
I just don`t have the patience to sit in front of my screens anymore & watch paint dry.
Thanks for including me though....
-Steve

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Here is a quick picture of The Izzy Bottom on The S&P---- Notice how it has not been breached. ---As well, you"ll notice that from Monday closing until Friday closing, we only dropped 82 points or 3.43%. This is fantastic news!!!!. Can it drop lower? Certainly---but for now the Izzy Bottom continues to hold.