ES Journal - 2019/2020

[SPYgrain]

Dude, look at Italy's new numbers. 2503 dead out of 31,000 confirmed cases. The main underlying condition in most cases is being 60 years old or older.

ya, Italy at 7.94%, France 2.3%....I think she was referring to china excluding Wuhan...Actually, what I see crunching numbers for different countries is it is too variable from country to country to statistically be the same cause of death ..jmo

 

[SPYgrain]

... think back over last 10-15 years....ask yourselves why this outbreak is several 1000% more contagious or communicable than the other viruses over the span back to 2000.??...I don't mean what is the media saying..ask yourself what is so different...maybe I am crazy, but this raises a red flag for me re: what is the Truthful cause going on...the possibility exists that it is something different than what we are told (may not even be a virus - I have no idea - just saying), and perhaps not so scary...Try not to panic or be angry about it...it is a Tsunami in the world and markets - but it will wash out and we all will evolve for the better from it....

 

[trading_jean]

I still read a lot of conspiracy theories, and people saying media coverage is the problem rather than the virus. NQ already made a good post about it, I thought I would join him.

1) This virus has the potential to infect almost everyone. With flu we are talking about different types and each type can only affect less than 50% of the population. Also important with regards to flu is the fact that most high-risk categories in advanced countries are vaccinated.

2) The infection rate for corona is about twice the rate for the flu: a person with the flu typically infects 1.3 other people. For the corona-virus every carrier infects between 2 and 3 other persons. This is a HUGE difference.

3) The mortality rate is 20 to 30 times higher than for the flu. About 10% of people that are infected get ill severely and demand intensive medical help.

Combination of the facts above gives governments basically two options:

1) Do nothing. In this case hospitals will not be able to cope with the amount of patients and mortality rates will go up drastically (so closer to 10% rather than 3%, probably the reason the number is higher in Italy at the moment). Most of the fatalities will be older people yes, but in this scenario you are kindly asked not to be ill severely or have a car accident as a younger person as well. If the intensive care units are full... well, you will die if you need one.

2) Do everything you can to slow the virus down. By 'flattening the curve' in the end most people will still end up being infected, but because of a lower peak hospitals can cope and mortality is a lot lower. Negative effects of this approach are that the epidemic takes longer and of course there is a dramatic impact on economy and daily life in general.

 

[vanzandt]

This is getting all-so-stupid IMHO. The Media is focusing on test kits, when in fact they should be focusing on the VACCINE ! In my backyard, a company has already created a COVID-19 vaccine with high tech software and equipment. All that is needed is for Trump to issue an executive order to the FDA to fast-track the Phase II and Phase III trials of this vaccine. End of the pandemic.
The name of the company is Inovio Pharmaceuticals. Symbol: INO

Always open to a good trade idea.
Invio is mentioned at the end of this article. Careful.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...Watch.com - Financial Services Industry News)

 

[Laissez Faire]

I'm thinking this (2485 - 2530) should be a good sell zone for the next major leg down.

Yeah. SPX closed at 2529,19 yesterday.

2346,58 is a key level on the SPX for various reasons:

1 - 30,85 % down

2 - 2018 Low

3 - Very obvious. Everyone and their dog is watching this level.

I think we're set to test this level today and quite possibly break it, unless the PPT starts buying stocks at the Open. If it breaks, I think it confirms the next major leg down from here. Here's how I think this is going to play out today:

1. As of now, we're all set for another limit down open.

If we repeat the prior limit downs, we'll quickly hit 7 % Limit Down in RTH / SPX before another trading halt.

Where does that take us?

SPX 2352. And very close to that key level.

2. After 15 minutes of trading halt, my expectation is that:

a. We'll drop further immediately, i.e., a repeat of Black Monday 2020

b. A huge rally into lunch hours, before selling back down to test (and breaks) the morning low and finally 2350.

c. We actually find a long-term bottom in this area.

Personally, I favour scenario b, but am prepared to trade them all.

Thoughts? Criticism?

 

[vanzandt]

Yeah. SPX closed at 2529,19 yesterday.

2346,58 is a key level on the SPX for various reasons:

1 - 30,85 % down

2 - 2018 Low

3 - Very obvious. Everyone and their dog is watching this level.

I think we're set to test this level today and quite possibly break it, unless the PPT starts buying stocks at the Open. If it breaks, I think it confirms the next major leg down from here. Here's how I think this is going to play out today:

1. As of now, we're all set for another limit down open.

If we repeat the prior limit downs, we'll quickly hit 7 % Limit Down in RTH / SPX before another trading halt.

Where does that take us?

SPX 2352. And very close to that key level.

2. After 15 minutes of trading halt, my expectation is that:

a. We'll drop further immediately, i.e., a repeat of Black Monday 2020

b. A huge rally into lunch hours, before selling back down to test (and breaks) the morning low and finally 2350.

c. We actually find a long-term bottom in this area.

Personally, I favour scenario b, but am prepared to trade them all.

Thoughts? Criticism?

Yeah I've been thinking about this. That level... the bounce came not because of any strong fundamental reason at the time, it came because word on the street was Trump was one heartbeat away from firing Powell for his monetary policy, and sure enough, he changed his tune at the beginning of January which kicked off B1's now legendary "bear market" of 2019.

So, I dunno. It'll be the focus of all the talking heads today. And the 30.85% is a good point too.
Hmmmm.
No opinion yet.

 

[vanzandt]

"Everyday you wake up... and before you rise from bed you say... 'today it will rain'.
I promise you, eventually you'll be right."
- Plaque on statue outside the B1 Trading Academy

2393 and halted

 

[NQurious]

is it is too variable from country to country to statistically be the same cause of death ..jm

Not too variable to be the same cause of death. The variable is the country's response.

South Korea immediately started testing everyone and force quarantined anyone who tested positve. They are doing very well.

Italy acted like we did - like it would be no big deal. They are having a terrible time. This disease is a killer and the initial reaction by Trump and his State sponsored media have caused a lingering skepticism in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary that this disease is a killer.

 

[Builder17]

Yeah. SPX closed at 2529,19 yesterday.

2346,58 is a key level on the SPX for various reasons:

1 - 30,85 % down

2 - 2018 Low

3 - Very obvious. Everyone and their dog is watching this level.

I think we're set to test this level today and quite possibly break it, unless the PPT starts buying stocks at the Open. If it breaks, I think it confirms the next major leg down from here. Here's how I think this is going to play out today:

1. As of now, we're all set for another limit down open.

If we repeat the prior limit downs, we'll quickly hit 7 % Limit Down in RTH / SPX before another trading halt.

Where does that take us?

SPX 2352. And very close to that key level.

2. After 15 minutes of trading halt, my expectation is that:

a. We'll drop further immediately, i.e., a repeat of Black Monday 2020

b. A huge rally into lunch hours, before selling back down to test (and breaks) the morning low and finally 2350.

c. We actually find a long-term bottom in this area.

Personally, I favour scenario b, but am prepared to trade them all.

Thoughts? Criticism?

Cant remember exactly but think SPY went to 230-231 in after hours that day (which is not on daily charts)

 

[vanzandt]

Cant remember exactly but think SPY went to 230-231 in after hours that day (which is not on daily charts)

2317 on the ES ah's