ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Interesting how what was crazy moves a few weeks ago is the new normal now. We're literally seeing a normal daily range move in minutes.
Anyone care to take a guess or have some valid way of predicting how long this volatility is likely to last?
Even if we should find a bottom and recover from here, I imagine it will be quite a wild trading range/recovery.
If 20 % down does not hold - I imagine some real panic would set in?
Anyone care to take a guess or have some valid way of predicting how long this volatility is likely to last?
Even if we should find a bottom and recover from here, I imagine it will be quite a wild trading range/recovery.
If 20 % down does not hold - I imagine some real panic would set in?
Bear markets tend to last up to 2 years, although not every day is 100 point range. But still, better than puny 10 point bull market ranges.
It's only been 4 weeks. I wouldn't call this THE bottom. There will be much steeper dive in the future for sure, eg. the climax selling, aka PANIC.
What's all this bear market talk ?
This is just a correction like the other ones we have had.
While I have been very bearish from above 3250 I think we bottom between 2600-2700 and then we get back to 3350 with a shot at 3400 and even 3500
While I love shorting the reality is down markets never last long. Look at the past. Even if shorted the top and held to the low that was only 57% drop through the worst financial situation since the Great Depression. And if you bought the low you are still up 328% after a 700 point drop which is why even though fear is stronger than greed, the short game doesn't ever last long term when you fight the trend.
CV is going to die down once the weather warms up and will be a non event once the market realizes it has overreacted. If there is one thing I have learned in 20 years it's that market aka people always over react to the extremes on both ends and given time RTM always wins in the end.
3044 is on my radar for now
This is just a correction like the other ones we have had.
While I have been very bearish from above 3250 I think we bottom between 2600-2700 and then we get back to 3350 with a shot at 3400 and even 3500
While I love shorting the reality is down markets never last long. Look at the past. Even if shorted the top and held to the low that was only 57% drop through the worst financial situation since the Great Depression. And if you bought the low you are still up 328% after a 700 point drop which is why even though fear is stronger than greed, the short game doesn't ever last long term when you fight the trend.
CV is going to die down once the weather warms up and will be a non event once the market realizes it has overreacted. If there is one thing I have learned in 20 years it's that market aka people always over react to the extremes on both ends and given time RTM always wins in the end.
3044 is on my radar for now
vol were fighting an unknown demon this time . I've never seen such panic as now . I'm not talking about the mkt but i'm talking about the virus. My sisters a dr and she called me almost crying everyweres sold out of sanitizer. Confidence is shaken to the ground . People got spoiled after 11 yrs . If we go into full quarantine like Italy it will be chaos. The most unknowns i've ever seen in 31 yrs. The fed can't fix this .
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