UBS: The collapse of the agreement between OPEC and Russia increases the uncertainty. While this will have adverse effects for energy, industrials, materials, and financials—although lower interest rates are the main problem—it is good news for consumers, which account for 70% of US economic activity.
In this context, we reduce our 2020 S&P 500 EPS estimate from USD 174 (6% growth) to USD 165 (0% growth), and we lower our S&P 500 price targets for June 2020 from 3,400 to 2,900 and December 2020 from 3,400 to 3,200.
Trying to predict how the economic impact of the coronavirus will play out over the next few months is very difficult. While not our base case, a "garden variety" recession is possible and could send the S&P 500 down to 2,500.