ES Journal - 2019/2020

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A good day to stay out of the markets unless you really know what you're doing and/or are fat from profits from the last weeks that you're willing to put at risk.

There's great opportunity, but also great risk.

This is the first time I've witnessed a limit down myself - so just watching today.

All computer panic selling. The market hits bottom when the last small retail investor sells. Then there is no one left to sell. Market is healthy and I continue trading on the long side.

Worldwide computer panic - not virus panic?

There sure is panic and it may be overdone, but you're surely in denial too. :)

If your method needs a 20 % drop to trigger a reversal - I think it's a bit too slow.
 
Interesting how NQ has bumped up against 9093.23 several times now, which was the limit down price from overnight. ES stopped about 6 points short of this key level.
 
...but otherwise there are tons of big players who got totally nuked over the weekend...

Have to be, yes.

...a long and growing list of now-worthless debt securities to digest.

No doubt.

...and tens of billions riding on quant strategies which just had their models totally vaporized.

Any sources on this...?

I'd imagine you're right.

On the other hand - there must be some quant strategies that are doing well too. For example Medallion did really well in 2008.

Overall, I bet a lot of people have been hurt already and that hurt may increase in the days/weeks to come. The pain threshold may not have been reached for everyone yet and if we can't find a bottom at 20 % down or so - true panic selling/forced liquidation should set in.
 
There is a strong chance that we end up green today. The cash gap will be filled here and then in the fullness of time the cash gap at 3330. ---
 
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