I know others may beg to differ, but daily looks like the correction is over and another leg down has begun.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I know others may beg to differ, but daily looks like the correction is over and another leg down has begun.
It may turn out to be another down day later, but the current AH PA is funny.
Hm, I was slightly leaning to short until now. Leaning long now with confirmation of PA tmr.
In my opinion, quoting that post just makes your case even worse. You said a strong break above 71 would mean a run for the previous day close, which sits at 3114. Price did break 71 and went as high as 82.
If we are to follow what you said in advance, then we have to assume that with price above 71, you're preparing for it to reach 3114. It seems like you are covering all bases. You say you're short, you say a turn can happen at 71, and you say if it doesn't turn there, then a run for 3114 is possible. And of course no mention of your short that is heavily in the red now.
Good job on ensuring that you would prove to be right no matter what happened!
It sounds encouraging, but I'm simply making an educated evaluation of the info presented. It makes no sense to be short at 46 when it goes instantly against you, and when you say that a break of 71 could mean a run all the way to 3114.
I did a bit of digging into the post where he mentions his stop and the reply was that his stop is "2 ATR 14 on a 5 minute".
Now I'm not too familiar with the use of ATR, but if I go with my platform, the default is actually 14, and the value for when the short was entered was roughly 11. So if we assume his stop is 2 times this, hence 22 points, it lines up well with his previous mention of a 22 point stop on the other trade.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/es-journal-2019-2020.328086/page-1401#post-5025987
So now we can put it all together. Short entry is at 46, and 22 points higher would be 68. I can understand why if he was watching 71, he would increase his stop a bit more, watching for that clean break, but it happened, and price got all the way to 82. Would a trader be saying "well, 3114 is only another 30 points away, lets just wait???"
So if we are to believe that he was still short from 46 all the way to 82, then either he is changing his typical stop, or decided to widen it for some reason, and also disregard his prediction that a break of 71 would mean going all the way to 3114.
I don't care one bit of course since its not my trade, but if B1S2 is going to be scrutinized for his shady posting practices, it only makes sense to hold everyone to this same level of scrutiny.
All long ES positions delta-hedged. Will release the hedges when market "corrects" to the upside.
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