ES Journal - 2019/2020

[FXtrader8911]

This resulted in a loss of 115.25 points. I continue looking long.

man, you are taking losses even though you are right in the direction. Hedge, don't use STOPS if you feel the entry was good...

b entry 3,052
s hedge at 2,940 with a trailing stop
at the 2,892 pivot your trailing stop kicks in and you take profit at 3,007 (+67pts) on the hedge
at around 3,100 you take profit on the original buy
With a hedge, you made 115pts, with a STOP you lost 115pts.
If there is no pivot, you then marry the hedge and take the loss the stop would have given anyway.

By hedging, you get a second bite at the apple without increasing risk i.e. your max loss is 115pts but you get a 2nd chance to make a profit instead.

Edd Thorp: master hedging and scale-out of losses

 

[Huyang]

My rule of thumb is that once a swing is retraced by more than 61.8% the impulse is dead and I won't use it for a measuring tool. Then, on the rebound, price rallied retracing 61.8% of the decline and then sold off. That tells me that the new impulse is down and new measuring move is the swing down.

Works for me.

Very nice. May you please tell how you enter the trade? limit entry or stop entry? thank you very much.

 

[Noone123]

Half Way Point - trying short here 3050

View attachment 221123

Why not short at 3100 or 3150?

 

[vanzandt]

Bernie is the real deal, imo. If Bernie wins the nomination, he'll give Trump a run for his money. If Biden gets the nod, Trump will waltz to a second term.

Nooooo, no no.... I say the exact opposite. Trump would beat Bernie by a landslide of epic proportions. Biden's got a chance. The last piece of the puzzle: https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...n-for-dem-nominee.334633/page-10#post-4948732

 

[Buy1Sell2]

It's possible that with Bernie not doing as well tonight, that the market may view a little less risk going forward.

The reason for this is not that the market thinks Biden can win the general election, but rather than Bernie now can't win it.

 

[Huyang]

b entry 3,052
s hedge at 2,940 with a trailing stop
at the 2,892 pivot your trailing stop kicks in and you take profit at 3,007 (+67pts) on the hedge

May you please use a chart to explain the hedge? I am not sure about those numbers. Thank you very much.

 

[NQurious]

Short average price 3043.50 target 2911ish

EDIT: I have a limit to take some off at 3031
EDIT: 31.50

 

[NQurious]

Short average price 3043.50 target 2911ish

EDIT: I have a limit to take some off at 3031
EDIT: 31.50

Filled on the 31.50's ... will access at 2973's and 2934's for sure, as well as PA along the way. But target is 2911's

 

[speedo]

BTW, the book referenced by NQ yesterday re 50% retracements is by Edward Dobson

 

[Laissez Faire]

I have a short bias for the day too and will hold that for as long as we stay below 3050/3058.

That said, I know that 3030, being a key technical level, can very well end up being a bottom for the day. So, a bit cautious here.