ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Spooz Top 2]

We have a soft floor at 3020-25... previous 2 -Top.....

 

[vanzandt]

From new all time Hi`s .... to Correction in 10 days... Sounds to me as if someone turned off the spigots on the QE pump... Never a good idea to monetize your own debt!!
Corona is a simply the catalyst for this move... This move developed on a dime & gave no clear cut sell signal or time to slide on your shorts!

I posted this back on Jan 17th in a discussion about exactly what you are talking about:

Yes. And it will be a move that people will be tripping over themselves to buy into. Btfd. And then after a few days, it'll happen again. Those with dry powder will buy more.
Then the real trap-door will open. Just like Dec 2018, except this time way way worse.

There's no easy money. But for now its up I guess. A lot of folks are going to experience something they've never seen before. Builds character. Been there, lived it.

Anyway, I'm done for the day. Made a few shillings on $BUD. They'll get it all back in time too, and I don't mean via my trading accounts.
Ya'll have fun. Be careful getting greedy.

 

[Pekelo]

but I wonder if it's simply the excuse and final trigger/catalyst the market's been waiting for a long time now

Correct. At the end/top it almost doesn't matter what starts the change, if the market is ripe for a turn.

A certain poster started a thread here about The signs of the times one day before the top...

Hey, Spooz Top is back!!!!

 

[Laissez Faire]

This market is weak as f''k today as well. Zero signs of a bottom yet. The NYSE TICK is barely making prints above zero today. That's very telling.

4 % down at 2991,50.

Let's see if we get there. What's another 20 points at this rate, right?

I'm also noting an open gap at 2941,25, but probably not today.

 

[notagain]

Bears in a hurry

 

[NQurious]

Do a deep dive into the Fed repo activity and you will see what this is all about, imo. Dodd-Frank allowed it to sneak up on us this time.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

I posted this back on Jan 17th in a discussion about exactly what you are talking about:





Anyway, I'm done for the day. Made a few shillings on $BUD. They'll get it all back in time too, and I don't mean via my trading accounts.
Ya'll have fun. Be careful getting greedy.

Nice Call, VZ.... this 11- 12 yr run has been unprecedented... Not sure it will ever be repeated ..... definitely not in our life times!

Good Trading...

 

[FXtrader8911]

This move developed on a dime & gave no clear cut sell signal or time to slide on your shorts!

I beg to differ, when market cap reached 158% of GDP on Feb 17th there were red warning signs that you and others ignored
Trading the Indices on Fundamentals
In particular this "I'll stick my neck out on this and say that although the timing can't be pinpointed, US markets are heading for a 17% to 19% correction"

If U wondering whether it was just talk, it wasn't, I put money were my mouth was and got heavy short on 17th, both US & EU, those shorts are now $120k in the money and growing

 

[Spooz Top 2]

I beg to differ, when market cap reached 158% of GDP on Feb 17th there were red warning signs that you and others ignored
Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

What I`m referring to is from a Technical standpoint.... Fundamentals are typically lagging indicators... Not leading indicators.

I highly doubt you were able to position yourself ahead of this slide predicated on
fundamental info....

 

[Pekelo]

I beg to differ, when market cap reached 158% of GDP on Feb 17th there were red warning signs that you and others ignored

I have to agree here. In the last 4-6 weeks leading up to the top the futures gapped up 4 out of 5 times overnight. There were huge consecutive upgaps and the market didn't even look back just kept going up. It was 2000 all over again.

There was a huge RSI divergence too, on the daily chart. The ATH was the 3rd top in 2 months and the RSI kept falling. This is just from the technical POV, not to mention the shoeshine boys buying calls on Reddit...