ES Journal - 2019/2020

[vanzandt]

I would love that buying opportunity

Yeah? Would you wait for that? Or would you buy all the way down?
And then comes the question... why did it hit 2690 in the first place? Because if that falls... we've got real problems B1.
Me personally, I think 2690 will be A NEW TOP.

(had to all cap that one)

2690

 

[schizo]

Did BS get out of his permabull position yet? BTW what's up with these warmongers?

U.S. Stock Futures Trim Losses After Initial Iran Strike Shock
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...attacks-military-base-in-iraq?srnd=markets-vp

 

[FXtrader8911]

Me personally, I think 2690 will be A NEW TOP.

Me thinks, me calls, me belive, me is sure.... etc Any of these "me" have a credible reason/analysis to make specific price calls? or are you all throwing darts at numbers on a board?

 

[vanzandt]

Me thinks, me calls, me belive, me is sure.... etc Any of these "me" have a credible reason/analysis to make specific price calls? or are you all throwing darts at numbers on a board?

Naaaa. It just sounded better than... 'blow me".

Other than that... I use a fucking chart.

Questions?

What's your point?

 

[FXtrader8911]

Questions?

Yes, I would be most helpful if you posted a copy of the chart you're looking at, with comments, so that we can see for ourself that a 10+% correction is coming which will then reverse and form a top at 2690.

What's your point?

I thought I made it, a call without substance nor time frame is just a random number of no benefit to anyone.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Either way..... we are going lower. There is no fucking way we aren't.

2690

Well, you've been bearish for quite a while now...

What's different now?

On the 3rd of December:

Here we go again.
....We're gonna hear this all the way to 2690.

Then, the market trades 187,00 points higher from the low on the 3rd of December to the current high the 2nd of January.

And from there, the market got ample opportunities and excuses to sell off, yet it doesn't. The dips are still being bought.

Could this be a short-term or even medium/long term top forming here at 3250? Could very well be. But personally, I remain bullish for the year until I get a trigger and see evidence of a sustained sell. Then we can start talking about a 10-20 % correction.

IMHO, of course.

Should a full war break out in the ME, I suppose it will be short term bearish, but are we sure it will be bearish long term?

 

[vanzandt]

Yes, I would be most helpful if you posted a copy of the chart you're looking at, with comments, so that we can see for ourself that a 10+% correction is coming which will then reverse and form a top at 2690.



I thought I made it, a call without substance nor time frame is just a random number of no benefit to anyone.

Actually I think 2975 will be the new resistance... after 2690 is touched.

We can all draw lines on a chart. For the most part its useless. There's too much uncertainty out there... there's gonna be a pullback. It doesn't take a whole lot of charting skills to see that there will be strong support around the 2700 area. So my call of 2690 is more of a call on an impending pullback that I believe will come about before the election due to a myriad of macro-economic and geo-political uncertainties. Simple as that. I apologize if I was a tad short with my response. I see strong support at 2700. I see a world that's a powder keg and the most powerful man in the world is rattling around 1600 Pennsylvania Ave playing with a book of matches.

 

[jl1575]

The market amazed traders with a surprising and tremendous comeback and more: ES recovered 65 pts (3181 to 3246) and NAS more than 200 pts (8678 to 8885). Smart shorts probably used this opportunity to cover so fuel the rally, also tons of idling money sitting on sideline and missed last year's surge just wanted to rush into market

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Now you will understand why I don't employ stops outside of RTH.---The only time that I might would be on a trade initiated in the overnight which would be rare.

 

[Laissez Faire]

There's too much uncertainty out there... there's gonna be a pullback.

There's a difference between a pullback and a 20% drop.

There was a lot of uncertainty last year as well - yet we finished the year with the strongest yearly gain since 2013.

I see a world that's a powder keg and the most powerful man in the world is rattling around 1600 Pennsylvania Ave playing with a book of matches.

Like he's been doing for four years now. The world is still standing, although some of my liberal friends thought the world was ending four years ago. New year - same world. And most likely Trump will get four new years, yes?

My point is that what you're bringing up was true last year as well. It was true 200 points ago. The market does not seem to care at this point in time. That's why it's so tricky to trade on actual fundamentals. Timing those fundamentals can be very tricky, especially in this market which is fueled by cheap credit and low rates and essentially backed by government.

If the market was overvalued 200 points lower or more, yet it rose this high - why won't it rise another 100 points from here?

I'm sure we'll get a huge sell-off some time in the not so distant future - I just don't see why that has to be now or even this year. Maybe in 2021. But the year is still young, so who knows...