Great! Happy for you!
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
Great! Happy for you!
Well, you've been (heavily) net short since August and we're 400 ES points higher by now. Fundamental perceptions does not matter as long as they're not justified by price action.
Pure TA seems to have been working just fine.
Well, you've been (heavily) net short since August and we're 400 ES points higher by now. Fundamental perceptions does not matter as long as they're not justified by price action.
Pure TA seems to have been working just fine.
That's only 20K per contract. Mreh, no big whoop, the market is zero risk free in either direction, according to some.
The board quiets...
The board quiets...
It was not documented, so it did not happen. We are still awaiting his short trade reconciliation from the bear market which started last year, or this year. Whenever the bear marker started.
Indeed I was, however, I hedged almost all the shorts during the Oct dip so my pain is effectively 100pts rather than 400, plus I was long EU & Asia, overall I'm $200k ahead for the year, not steller but now I only need a 3% dip to get back the 100pt loss. It is very likely I'll get that and more sometimes from Jan to March, overall I'm still comfortable with the strategy... I did short too soon and also did not anticipate such a strong Nov/Dec, but all considered, the loss is recoverable with just a 3% dip and likely to turn into a sizeable profit if the dip turns into a 10% correction (20% would also not surprise me).
Last edited:
Well, you've managed your position very well then. Of course, there's also the opportunity cost of being on the wrong side of the market for 5 months.
Get back the 100 point loss? Just wipe the slate clean and don't worry about it. 2020 is a new year.
For what it's worth - on the years (predictions) I listed earlier, 9/10 had at least a 3 % dip. 1 year had a -16,66 % dip - the 1 year in the sample that closed negatively on the year.
Well, as a trader, I sure hope you're right. It would suck if 2020 should turn out to be a low volatile year with the market grinding slowly higher on low ranges. This would probably be the opposite of what everybody expects since it seems a lot of people is expecting a correction in 2020.
Just be careful to not become too stubborn. You had your convictions this fall as well and the market is doing the exact opposite so far.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a sizeable correction myself, but 'staying long hier' for now.
Spot-on on that one... a bit of a blow to the ego being in the wrong direction and having to do risk management instead of trading for profit. Instead of banking the $300k the strategy was supposed to give, I'm staring at a loss and big lost opportunities. 2019 will be a year of reflection for me, a lesson on greediness... the call wasn't entirely wrong, a 6% dip did occur in Oct but because I was anticipating a correction, I hedged instead of closing the shorts. However, if the correction I expected in Sep/Oct finally arrives, the strategy will be back on track (but with a 5% to 6% diluted objective), if not then the lesson on stubbornness & greediness has been learned. I take comfort in knowing that much grater traders than I can also make wrong calls, not least Druckenmiller, unlike him though, I didn't put all my eggs in one basket and did Ok in the EU markets which hit new highs while I was net long there..
Last edited:
I'm curious....HOW exactly did you hedge your short position ? With options ?
Hedging implies a lower rate of return, so essentially your shorts had a much lower positive PnL impact during that dip than could be expected. Correct ?
K
kpercent
Are you using CFDs? The overnight cost would be substantial right?
- Status