Merry X-mas. Isn't it about time you started your "next-year" thread? I mean, this one already has 22K+ posts, and we're in a presidential election year now. Time to reset the page numbers maybe? Page 1302? Heh
ES Journal - 2019/2020
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Merry X-mas. Isn't it about time you started your "next-year" thread? I mean, this one already has 22K+ posts, and we're in a presidential election year now. Time to reset the page numbers maybe? Page 1302? Heh
thread has a year to go.
Merry Christmas, traders! 
I'm doing some homework while waiting for the next round of overeating (we're one day ahead of you here in Norway).
While the year is not yet over, as of yesterday, the S&P closing price gives us a 28,58 % gain for 2019. I don't expect we'll dip much below that by year end. If anything, I think we'll see even higher prices (3250).
Since 1950, the S&P 500 have been up more than 25 % on the year 13 times not counting 2019. The last time in recent years was 2013 with a gain of 29,60 %.
Due to the current nominal pricing of the index, 2019 was also the largest yearly range in the S&P 500 ever at 783,82 points from high to low!
Remarkably, the average yearly gain following such a year is 11,25 % with only 2/13 years closing negative.
Let’s narrow it down further and look at years where…
1) The year gain was greater than 25 %
2) S&P opened at the bottom of the range and closed at the top
3) S&P made and closed at all time highs
This have happened 10 times since 1950 with 2019 being the 11th time.
For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with only 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs.
While I and everyone else may feel this market is nuts and feel it's 'time' we sell off, these numbers seems very bullish to me. While this analysis is a bit naive and neglects several other factors and uncertainties moving in to 2020, I think they're very interesting still.
Assuming a closing price of 3220 on S&P for 2019 and a 10 % yearly gain - we should see 3540 by the end of 2020.
I'm doing some homework while waiting for the next round of overeating (we're one day ahead of you here in Norway).
While the year is not yet over, as of yesterday, the S&P closing price gives us a 28,58 % gain for 2019. I don't expect we'll dip much below that by year end. If anything, I think we'll see even higher prices (3250).
Since 1950, the S&P 500 have been up more than 25 % on the year 13 times not counting 2019. The last time in recent years was 2013 with a gain of 29,60 %.
Due to the current nominal pricing of the index, 2019 was also the largest yearly range in the S&P 500 ever at 783,82 points from high to low!
Remarkably, the average yearly gain following such a year is 11,25 % with only 2/13 years closing negative.
Let’s narrow it down further and look at years where…
1) The year gain was greater than 25 %
2) S&P opened at the bottom of the range and closed at the top
3) S&P made and closed at all time highs
This have happened 10 times since 1950 with 2019 being the 11th time.
For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with only 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs.
While I and everyone else may feel this market is nuts and feel it's 'time' we sell off, these numbers seems very bullish to me. While this analysis is a bit naive and neglects several other factors and uncertainties moving in to 2020, I think they're very interesting still.
Assuming a closing price of 3220 on S&P for 2019 and a 10 % yearly gain - we should see 3540 by the end of 2020.
There was a slight error above with an 'only' that shouldn't be there. If a moderator reads this - feel free to correct it. It should say:
For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs.
I still feel it's folly to make predictions for a year ahead. But it's interesting to run the numbers and see what you actually find. Especially when the numbers come out as one-sided as this.
I could add some more detail regarding all of the years in the sample making new all time highs:
The minimum upside gain (looking at the single year with a negative close) was 4,63 %. The mean was 16,49 %. The largest was 28,99 %.
Extrapolating from those numbers then we could see a high reading by 2020
a) Minimum 3369
b) A mean expectation of 3750
c) A maximum of 4153.
For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs.
I still feel it's folly to make predictions for a year ahead. But it's interesting to run the numbers and see what you actually find. Especially when the numbers come out as one-sided as this.
I could add some more detail regarding all of the years in the sample making new all time highs:
The minimum upside gain (looking at the single year with a negative close) was 4,63 %. The mean was 16,49 %. The largest was 28,99 %.
Extrapolating from those numbers then we could see a high reading by 2020
a) Minimum 3369
b) A mean expectation of 3750
c) A maximum of 4153.
FOMC creates problems to solve them.
In order to start QE they could not say....lets give Trump what he wants or he will continue to make us look bad.
So they had JP Morgan spike overnight rates....so the FOMC could ride in and fix the REPO markets with a flood of fresh printed FIAT currency. For the past 12 weeks the FOMC has pumped approximately 100 billion per week into the system. Bernanke's QE pumped 80 billion per month during the financial crash of 08.
This will go down as the biggest bubble in history....when is pops I have no idea.
In order to start QE they could not say....lets give Trump what he wants or he will continue to make us look bad.
So they had JP Morgan spike overnight rates....so the FOMC could ride in and fix the REPO markets with a flood of fresh printed FIAT currency. For the past 12 weeks the FOMC has pumped approximately 100 billion per week into the system. Bernanke's QE pumped 80 billion per month during the financial crash of 08.
This will go down as the biggest bubble in history....when is pops I have no idea.
This 28.58% needs to be put into perspective, 2018 ended with a 20% correction so the first +20% in 2019 was a recovery, leaving 8.58% as the net gain.
Caution is required for January... too many negative factors were ignored in Nov/Dec 2019, these will factor-in in Jan when players start taking profits.
I'm not saying you're wrong Rigshaw, but are you 100% sure about those numbers? 80B/month in '08 and now 100B/week?! That doesn't sound right. I mean maybe it is, but damn... 1.2 Trillion.... shouldn't this be headlines somewhere? Maybe it is. Did it just come out?
Wtf?
Anybody else care to chime in?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...imit-for-some-daily-overnight-repo-operations
Impeachment and trade deal headlines have dominated front pages the last couple weeks, but fed's actions have received mention.
It's no news that Powell hasn't a clue on what he's doing... a kid with a new toy, the toy is a money printing press... this time last year he was tightening, also without a clue as to why. The guy is a wrecking ball. Frightening that he holds the world economy in his hands.
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