ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Given the nature, outcome, and timeline of the Phase 1 negotiations, Phase 2 will drag on till way, WAY after the 2020 election results.
And what happens this year? Oct 2, 2019? It becomes a damned 10+% surge into the end of year. Q4 2018 and Q4 2019 are polar opposites. The past two Januaries have been major up months. Will Jan 2020 be another one? Third time in a row? At record highs? In a primary election year? *shrugs*.
First post so go easy
I don’t know if you guys follow Phil Anderson (economist) and his 18.5 year real estate cycle?
I do,,, I’m a big follower! Since the GFC huge gains on most indices from his history of this valuable cycle have been gained in a sensational manner ....
Look him up and follow his thesis, I’m a follower of TA but employ his theories to the tee!
We are fast approaching a correction in 2020 .... when? ..... is anyone’s guess & that’s the billion $$ question but anytime from March-November 2020 (presidential election) is probable?.?. Watch very closely the VIX & global movements ....
It will be a left field event (not so much a black swan event) but when everyone thinks the picture is so rosy! Guards will be down by many & gains will be evaporated very quickly ... sentiment will change very quickly ...
We are fast approaching the mid-cycle correction which will occur at some stage in 2020. It may not be too dramatic but it will happen! Perhaps a 5-10+% correction?? Who knows & who cares but it is inevitable ...
I study TA very closely and am waiting patiently for the tell-tale signs of going into conservative mode very soon upon analysis of charts and other variables that say now is the time to take stock.
Depending on how this reply is taken, I’ll continue to contribute or isolate myself to my own thoughts ...
To sum up 2020 will be a downer, from around 2021 things will pick up big time and be explosive. The second stage of this cycle is going to be very, very powerful ...
Get ready
First post so go easy
I don’t know if you guys follow Phil Anderson (economist) and his 18.5 year real estate cycle?
I do,,, I’m a big follower! Since the GFC huge gains on most indices from his history of this valuable cycle have been gained in a sensational manner ....
Look him up and follow his thesis, I’m a follower of TA but employ his theories to the tee!
We are fast approaching a correction in 2020 .... when? ..... is anyone’s guess & that’s the billion $$ question but anytime from March-November 2020 (presidential election) is probable?.?. Watch very closely the VIX & global movements ....
It will be a left field event (not so much a black swan event) but when everyone thinks the picture is so rosy! Guards will be down by many & gains will be evaporated very quickly ... sentiment will change very quickly ...
We are fast approaching the mid-cycle correction which will occur at some stage in 2020. It may not be too dramatic but it will happen! Perhaps a 5-10+% correction?? Who knows & who cares but it is inevitable ...
I study TA very closely and am waiting patiently for the tell-tale signs of going into conservative mode very soon upon analysis of charts and other variables that say now is the time to take stock.
Depending on how this reply is taken, I’ll continue to contribute or isolate myself to my own thoughts ...
To sum up 2020 will be a downer, from around 2021 things will pick up big time and be explosive. The second stage of this cycle is going to be very, very powerful ...
Get ready
Cycles no longer work, the FOMC pretty much controls the markets now. Things that use to work no longer do. And that pretty much sums it up.
And about the VIX.....Once they allowed it to trade in the futures market it is no longer a useful tool.
Can you tell me what the stock indexes will do next week? I sure can can't. What I do know is the trend is up and I trade accordingly. Trying to forecast next year is absurd.
And about the VIX.....Once they allowed it to trade in the futures market it is no longer a useful tool.
Can you tell me what the stock indexes will do next week? I sure can can't. What I do know is the trend is up and I trade accordingly. Trying to forecast next year is absurd.
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That's about the only constant in the markets, large mood swings changing, but sometimes slowly and sometimes quickly.
I can recall most of this year, up to about November it was bearish, however market chugged on up.
Now it is certainly turning bullish.
How long for....?
But as some are saying on this thread, we are now seeing it go parabolic.
And we know how parabolic tops usually finally end up.
In the meantime enjoy the ride and ET.
If your looking for a sure thing stay out of the markets...Markets are full of risk. I guess it was my mistake to assume folks posting on a traders website where actually traders.
After posting on this site for 15 years, Its easy to spot someone on ET who is not participating in the current uptrend.
What if cycles working/not-working is a cycle itself??
As for FOMC, in my view, this is early signs they have LOST control.
And VIX, I agree it's not too useful beyond giving a trader, on a coarse scale, an expectation of price movement width.
Prob more than a few here who gave it a shot at one point and failed, left trading but can't leave it alone.
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