ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

As long as there is range and structure, I don't care about direction. The last several weeks have been comatose.

So, yesterday certainly had range, but was there structure?

I think yesterday's action were a bit messy with fairly strong counter moves.

While the last weeks have been slow, I still think they've provided quite decent trading opportunities within those smaller ranges. I've been averaging around 6 signals per day.

 

[FXtrader8911]

I'm waiting for a trigger first.

Beware of the ides of March, in this case, 15th December, that could be the trigger.

"Tariff Man" is in tax mode, Argentina & Brazil are just indicative of things yet to come, not least additional tariffs on China, tariffs of up to 100% on French goods, threats of the same on Italy, Austria & India. Markets are overvalued, bulls should indeed reassess... there is nothing but sentiment to drive markets higher, if that dwindles, a correction is more likely that new highs. Just how much can Trump keep imposing new taxes on Americans before the consumer stops the extravagance that's lifting sentiment?

 

[vanzandt]

Anyone wanna venture a guess as to the cause of that little 5AM drop?
(hint)..... Guess who's visiting London and running their mouth about China.
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Edit: Here ya go, its on the wires now. Gotta love love C-Span though when Trump is meeting with world leaders. Ya just never know what he's gonna say.
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Trump says it might be better to wait until after 2020 election for a China trade deal
Updated 11 min ago
David Reid@davyreid73
Key Points

• Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of one another's goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.
• Criticizing previous U.S. administrations, Trump claimed China had been "ripping off the United States for many, many years" and this had been down to a "lack of leadership."

President Donald Trump speaks during a tour of Apple's Mac Pro manufacturing plant in Austin, Texas, November 20, 2019.
Tom Brenner | Reuters
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that it might be better to wait until after the 2020 election to strike a trade deal with China.

"In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal, but they want to make a deal now and we will see whether or not the deal is going to be right," Trump told reporters in London. The U.S. general election is set to take place in November 2020.

When asked if he had a deadline for the deal, he added: "I have no deadline, no ... In some ways I think it is better to wait until after the election, if you want to know the truth."

Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of one another's goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.

Criticizing previous U.S. administrations, Trump claimed China had been "ripping off the United States for many, many years" and this had been down to a "lack of leadership."

In reaction to the comments, Dow futures lost around 100 points and turned negative as traders digested the increased likelihood of a delay to any deal.

 

[NQurious]

Year to date we're up 24,21 % on a closing basis (Monday 2nd December).

Beware the mean, and the reversion thereto.

 

[speedo]

So, yesterday certainly had range, but was there structure?

I think yesterday's action were a bit messy with fairly strong counter moves.

While the last weeks have been slow, I still think they've provided quite decent trading opportunities within those smaller ranges. I've been averaging around 6 signals per day.

Aside from several consolidation periods, yes plenty of structure and signals.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Bull market looking real good here for a buy. This little dip should end or has ended and we're looking at a big up day today.

 

[vanzandt]

Bull market looking real good here for a buy. This little dip should end or has ended and we're looking at a big up day today.

The massive bear market that commenced at exactly 9:09AM EST on 11/20/19 continues to be in vogue at this juncture.

For "journal integrity" I'll play the B1 game here. In short at last night's close of 3117 with a stop at 3229. Target 2670. Near term target.

 

[Builder17]

Bull market looking real good here for a buy. This little dip should end or has ended and we're looking at a big up day today.

Is there a case to be made for looking at smaller time frames for the exits if you expected a pullback such as this one from the highs last week? You could argue that it's micromanaging the (very profitable) position you have - but (in hindsight) selling into the breakout would have netted more $ with the current opportunity to buy back today -which you believe is a good area.

Also, Does this retrace take away from the "parabolic" nature you were seeing in the breakout?

 

[imjohn]

The massive bear market that commenced at exactly 9:09AM EST on 11/20/19 continues to be in vogue at this juncture.

It's comments like this that keep me coming back to the greatest financial thread on the interwebs.

 

[syswizard]

Also, Does this retrace take away from the "parabolic" nature you were seeing in the breakout?

The parabola up-move idea is definitely dead now. We are working on a straight line at best.
For Elliott Wave fans, this could be the ending of the long, extended 5th wave.
Key technical support levels to watch: 3030 (Sept highs) and 2940 (lower trend line).