ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Buy1Sell2 said:
I didn't lose 605 points during downturn last year.
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I hope not. :)

I just found it odd that you posted those charts to allegedly show an obvious up trend, yet yourself was oblivious to the trend down during the end of last year and then became bearish during the strong up trend which have lasted for most of 2019.
 
Laissez Faire said:
became bearish during the strong up trend which have lasted for most of 2019.
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All calls on here are useful... sometimes one just needs to go opposite to the call. e.g. now would be a good time to sell the parabolic bull market call.


Jim Carney, the CEO of Parplus Partners, a hedge fund that focuses on trading strategies linked to volatility, is certain that an upswing in volatility is inevitable.

His view and that of Jason Goepfert are in line with the fundamentals which indicate that market players have over-projected PEs by 14% ( Trading the Indices on Fundamentals ). A spike of 50% in VIX would equate to 10% to 12% fall in the S&P500.
 
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Early 2018 was parabolic, not sure if atm it is.
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FXtrader8911 said:
All calls on here are useful... sometimes one just needs to go opposite to the call. e.g. now would be a good time to sell the parabolic bull market call.
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I don't mind anyone's calls, to be honest, although I don't tend to listen to them. That's not offensive to anyone, but I firmly believe trading is something that needs to be based on one's own research and beliefs.

I just found it odd that he's now using charts to point out the obvious, while the obvious in the charts have not been obvious earlier. :)

FXtrader8911 said:
Jim Carney, the CEO of Parplus Partners, a hedge fund that focuses on trading strategies linked to volatility, is certain that an upswing in volatility is inevitable.

His view and that of Jason Goepfert are in line with the fundamentals which indicate that market players have over-projected PEs by 14% ( Trading the Indices on Fundamentals ). A spike of 50% in VIX would equate to 10% to 12% fall in the S&P500.
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Would sure be nice. :)

I see what you're doing though - you're finding evidence which supports your own beliefs, i.e., the markets are due for a substantial correction.

Do you ever consider the other viewpoint?

For example - what if the way markets are priced have changed in recent history?

Or maybe there's something else you're not considering...?
 
Laissez Faire said:
I got a 10/11 chance of next week making new ATHs, but only a 5/11 chance of closing positive on the week. And the positive days are limited to a maximum of 0,24 % with one outlier of 2,11 %.

So, according to my basic weekly model, it's a mixed picture going into next week where odds favour at least a minor pullback and limited upside.
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The probabilities played out this week as well. Maybe I should start considering weekly plays. :)

Let's not bore you with details, but the last times this weekly pattern played out was in 2017 and both suggests continued down side the coming week. Not expecting a sell-off, though. Something like this with the first bar being last week.

upload_2019-11-24_13-27-42.png
 
Laissez Faire said:
Do you ever consider the other viewpoint?

For example - what if the way markets are priced have changed in recent history?
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Indeed I do... for day-trades I look at the current sentiment and go with the trend but these are "filler", petty 20 to 40 pt trades to keep me busy while waiting for markets to gravitate to the fair price which always happens eventually... the long term trades are the 200 to 400 pts trades that are worth planning for.

Market "fair value" pricing hasn't changed with time, eventually they settle to a market cap of between 100% to 120% of GDP, below that is undervalued, above is overvalued or even a bubble, sentiment drives markets until they go too far one way or the other, then they'll correct to fair value (usually overshoot too) and sentiment then takes over again. The big money is made by playing the sentiment against the fundamentals, day-trading just plays the sentiment of the moment.

Market Cap vs GDP is currently 147%, the highest ever was Mar 30, 2000 at 148.50%. We are approaching the ATH in an environment of contracting GDP, a correction is more likely than new highs. Professional investors don't buy when market cap is out of wack with GDP but will hold on as long as dumb money keeps flowing in, when that stops, they sell in mass leaving the retail trader/investor holding the bag.
 
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