ES Journal - 2019/2020
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Yes, the one that presided over this near-vertical line...
BTW, the vertical down-line was caused by the "real" idiot at the Fed
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By this - are you referring to the most recent times the market made ATHs and corrected shortly after?
Regardless, the opposite have happened as well. If we look at September 2017, the market actually followed this sequence after making ATHs:
1) 7 consecutive weeks each making ATHs
2) 1 week down -0,10 % and no ATH
3) 5 new consecutive weeks making ATHs towards year end
4) Last week of 2017 down -0,42 % with no ATH
5) 4 new consecutive weeks each making ATHs at the start of 2018
For a total gain of 411,25 points or a 16,51 % gain. So, pretty much 16 weeks of ATHs with only two small pauses in between.
Then, of course, the markets went down top to bottom 343,25 points over the next two weeks.
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The above was badly written... I'll correct it hereunder
looking at points gained over previous highs before a dip, it appears that sentiment can only remain in the driving seat for a certain distance before markets gravitate towards fair value
It is also to be noted that pattern symmetry gets less useful the further back one goes, the previous 12 months or less is the optimum time frame to look for symmetry, going back further makes the prediction less reliable. Symmetry is something used by the Medallion fund, these guys modelled their trading system on the assumption that the same fund managers will react the same way when given similar circumstances... going back too far makes the prediction fuzzy as different playes are in the picture. (Medallion also factors-in many other parameters that influence human behaviour, consequently, they get it right all the time... for the rest of us without super computers to make the adjustments, its just a guide)
2017 was a very unusual period with forward guidance giving higher profits each quarter and virtually no market volatility, such markets cannot be compared to markets within slowing growth... they are unique.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pete...-for-phase-one-deal-with-china-173630228.html
This is negative news on trade deal. I was not able to short oil since it already fell, so I am shorting ES which has not fallen on this news probably because smart money is waiting to trade later tonight. I am shorting multiple contracts and will add if trade goes against me. I started shorting at 3090.
This is negative news on trade deal. I was not able to short oil since it already fell, so I am shorting ES which has not fallen on this news probably because smart money is waiting to trade later tonight. I am shorting multiple contracts and will add if trade goes against me. I started shorting at 3090.
Took 1 contract off at 3088 so I can now either add it back on if trade goes against me or just wait for 2nd contract to hit a lower target.
How many times does Trump have to see the movie before he gets it? The Chinese are not the tough and grate negotiators he said they are, they are just masters in playing him and in frustration as all Asians negotiators are... Agree to everything then do nothing. With so much on Trump's plate, I fail to see why he personally gets involved with the negotiators, especially on a mini-deal with no substance even if done, likewise, I fail to see why market players keep getting suckered by Trump. Not sure markets will react... the deal is not much of a deal (regurgitated promises, foolish to reduce tariffs on old promises) and trade fatigue is in play.
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So just keep the tariffs in effect.
I took the last contract off at 3085. This was my best night of trading on ES. I am taking off trading for a couple days. Would not be surprised if ES goes lower but I don't have a 100% win rate so whatever.
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