Extended PAIN for long term shorts.What's your outlook moving forward from here in this parabolic, fresh, bull market?
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
Now this post carries some weight, as there is no one who knows more about extended PAIN for long term shorts than you, B1
So, we have two weeks in a row both making ATHs and both closing at top of the range. I found 30 occurrences of this since 2013. 15 of these were found in 2013! And 6 in 2017.
Some results:
27/30 times we made new highs (yes, ATHs) the next week
19/30 times we closed higher next week
So, barring any negative news (and maybe even then), I'd say odds favour continued upside in the week to come.
The last 10 in visual form:
Some results:
27/30 times we made new highs (yes, ATHs) the next week
19/30 times we closed higher next week
So, barring any negative news (and maybe even then), I'd say odds favour continued upside in the week to come.
The last 10 in visual form:
B1 is now bullish. Just waiting for Gartman to go long to complete the sell signal.
I tend to rely on symmetry more than history, i.e. investors are more likely to react in a similar way given similar risk. In Oct18 the Fed created risk with a policy error, now we have risk on earnings created by trade, impeachment & elections. You might be right for the week ahead as there is still dumb money at play, but longer-term, a correction is more likely than new highs. The Dems are so fixated on removing Trump that they're oblivious to the collateral damage their wrecking ball causes, they even wrecked Biden's chances putting Elizabeth Warren in front, she is a wrecking ball all in herself and a risk factor... markets could lose 25% on that alone if she wins office. At these highs and with PEs at 145% of GDP, investors are more likely to take profits than to buy more.
Last edited:
I'm listening. And what you say is interesting. But can you time the market on this information? Also, 'everyone' knows this already. To me, it just seems to represent potential risk. Warren is not president yet, etc. I also seem to find that other people have fundamental analysis claiming stocks are not ovarvalued.
I checked my posting history and see that I actually called these last two weeks being 'up weeks' and ATHs, but I'm not calling anything for next week as I'm becoming increasingly uncertain about where we're at and where we're going.
I'm just pointing out the numbers and saying that this set-up isn't particularly bearish on its own, although on the last 2 occurences we actually had down weeks next with one of them down 3,93 %.
But if I were to stick my neck out, I'd say I feel confident we print at least 3100 some time early next week, but that we may very well see a pullback from there. Or not. I really don't know.
I was as sure of 3090's before the next bear as I had ever been. I do not have any degree of confidence as to whether the next 10% will + or - ... but 3105 to 3121 looks to be on deck before any substantial pullback. Of course, we still have the huge orange idiot who has proven to be the single most disruptive force in the history of the Republic, so I really don't know.
Not with grate accuracy, however, looking at points gained over previous highs it appears that sentiment can only remain in the driving seat for a certain distance before markets gravitate towards fair value. It often pays a dividend to trade both on the daily chart and on a 10-minute chart with 2 different strategies. The long term view is what pays the big dividends, the day trades are just a filler while waiting for the big moves.
Last edited:
The one with the twitter account? Chirp, chirp
- Status