ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

I would not get too excited with the graph given, a steep rise to about the point where there was an even steeper fall does not show a bull market... it's merely a recovery, a steep rise from here is needed to say it's a bull market.

Okay. Is that some commonly known definition of a bull market? Steepness? Slope?

Because it's the first time I've heard it.

It's hard to argue that a market which keeps going higher is anything other than a bull market. People's opinions and political biases seems to keep people from seeing what it is.

Can that turn? Can we crash? Or at least correct?

Sure. It's just not happening yet.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I'm calling bullshit on this bull market. ATH is all fine and well.

Many people have been doing that since the end of 2009, yet here we are - 2400 points higher (360 % price gain).

My love affair with it ended after it burned me the LAST two times we hit ATH and it pulled back at least 10% within a 3 month contract period (read, NQ, ES, YM). I got lucky to get out on those swings with a meager profit (and on one occasion, a big loss.)

And I still remember when I went long at ATH on YM back in May, around 27,300ish (The big loss). It has yet to get back to that point.

This bull market has burned me on swings because of Trump.

You should not blame others for making bad trading decisions. That will not give you any progress as a trader.

There is nothing now that leads me to believe that the market will ever, ever, be like 2017. Ever. That was a one-and-done year.

I for one do not want 2017 again as the volatility was generally too low. Day traders should welcome volatility and uncertainty.

 

[FXtrader8911]

Is that some commonly known definition of a bull market? Steepness? Slope?

No argument that it's been a bull market since 2009, I was just making the point that the particular graph shown to validate it, doesn't.

 

[Laissez Faire]

No argument that it's been a bull market since 2009, I was just making the point that the particular graph shown to validate it, doesn't.

Care to elaborate?

 

[FXtrader8911]

Care to elaborate?

DOW at 8,000 before GFC, returned to that level in 2013 and is now 27,000, I read that as a bull market starting in 2013 (or if you want to include the recovery period, then since 2009)

The graph you showed to argue a bull marker was the recovery period from Dec 2018 to now... i.e. the period to return to the 2017 highs, on its own it does not depict a bull market, it shows a 2 year consolidation period with a dip in the middle, if markets break down from here, one can then say that the bull market ended in 2017. B1S2 was not talking nonsense, however, his call that the bear market had started hasn't been confirmed yet, we are still in consolidation. I am not making the same call as believe the bull market is still on, but I do expect another sizable correction before a renewed brake upwards. (a flush-out of the overbought positions (created by the Trump factor) and rotation to the value stocks is needed to restore a healthy market that can then go higher)

I am amazed that professionals and presumably intelligent investors let themselves get suckered by Trump time and time again. We, as traders, just take it as it is given but some of these "professionals" buying on hype created by Trump are likely to loose some serious money.

 

[vanzandt]

So bullish here these days.
3065 outta the gate.
It'll never be this cheap again.
FOMO!

 

[Overnight]

...
You should not blame others for making bad trading decisions. That will not give you any progress as a trader...

I do not blame anyone other than myself for making "bad trading decisions". But I blame Trump for the unnecessary swings in the market with this trade-war shit. He is single-handedly causing economic turmoil throughout the world markets.

The UNCERTAINTY that cause businesses to pause in their R&D and innovation for fear of future demand. The uncertainty people will have over the future of their own job status. Mark my words...Once the consumer starts speaking, from retail to home-buying, credit borrowing, to etc blah blah, the recession will be at hand. It is dominos. It is a cascade effect. And it will be because of ONE MAN.

 

[syswizard]

I am amazed that professionals and presumably intelligent investors let themselves get suckered by Trump time and time again. We, as traders, just take it as it is given but some of these "professionals" buying on hype created by Trump are likely to loose some serious money.

Trump is riveted to the market. I'll bet he gets his advisors to update him several times a day. He knows his election chances will be partially predicated on the state of the market next November.

 

[vanzandt]

It is dominos.

And that's where you'll be ordering your pies when the big crash comes.

 

[Overnight]

And that's where you'll be ordering your pies when the big crash comes.

ROFL! No, I'll be doing the smart thing...Dumpster-diving for Little Caesers freshly-made pies they toss every night into the trash because they are too limp-dick to donate their uneaten food to homeless folks for fear of being sued by them for getting sick.