ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

Over the past 2 years though, making ATHs hasn't really been that spectacular.

Who knows, but its obvious that breaking highs hasn't lead to huge rallies for the past 2 years.

True. I actually wrote about that in this journal in June and I'm not saying we will have huge rallies from here - just pointing out the obvious which is that we're making ATHs and currently going up.

Most of the sizeable corrections have had ample opportunity to join on the short side, so better to wait for confirmation than shorting a rising market and being continually stopped out, IMO.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Indeed, well said.

Reporting headline might look good but the bar was low, below 2015 earning when the S&P was 2,100ish so yes, looks like a bubble but as you say, markets can remain irrational for a long timeTrading the Indices on Fundamentals

With regards to fundamental analysis - do you factor in actual demand for stocks?

I don't know about the US or the rest of the world, but I know that in Norway, people traditionally have NOT been investing/saving in stocks. That's changed dramatically the last few years and now you the regular people actually saving in stocks for their pension on a monthly basis.

Even my own girlfriend (hell, her mother also actually) who knows nothing about stocks is now saving in global index funds every month.

Increased demand for stocks = higher prices. And an increasingly large number of people seems to think that a dip is a great way to get in on a bargain as they're saving for the long run.

IMO, no matter our perception of pricing or general economics, the markets are 'rigged' to the upside.

 

[vanzandt]

I'm gonna play the ES today.
Resting an order to start... s @ 3046
edit: no spike out of the gate. Take 43
edit2: out 42
Playing amzn.
1789.20
stop on amzn just north of the 200D $1801
I wanna see amzn drop 2% today. Pulling the stop down to 1794.90 though

10:01AM.. there's my drop.

 

[speedo]

Didn't take long to settle into consolidation

 

[speedo]

Don't know why I can't get a chart to copy this morning

 

[vanzandt]

Don't know why I can't get a chart to copy this morning

? You just had one up.

 

[speedo]

Yeah but it was an old one..noticed after I put it up.

 

[speedo]

Wanted to show first cross short on the 13.5 setting and subsequent 1500 entries...weird

 

[speedo]

I have a dedicated trading puter which I don't have networked to my browsing puter so I copy image to email and send it to myself on other and then copy over...didn't work this morning for some reason. Halloween cyber mystery

 

[speedo]

anyway...very nice series of clean shorts, bailing out the week nicely