ES Journal - 2019/2020

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vanzandt said:
Any good signals today?
Volume has really fell off the last 7 sessions. You'd think if this rally was for real we'd have had more volume. 1/4 point drop and sell the news....?
The tone may be a bit hawkish, or at least less dovish. Housing prices are still rising, pretty much out of reach for a lot of first time buyers. They have to slow that down. I think the economy is heating up again. I bet they're done for the year.
3034 .... Sell it?
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Last week was decent but this week is pretty soft so far.
 
vanzandt said:
Any good signals today?
Volume has really fell off the last 7 sessions. You'd think if this rally was for real we'd have had more volume. 1/4 point drop and sell the news....?
The tone may be a bit hawkish, or at least less dovish. Housing prices are still rising, pretty much out of reach for a lot of first time buyers. They have to slow that down. I think the economy is heating up again. I bet they're done for the year.
3034 .... Sell it?
More...
That's because the institutions ain't buying (volume wise). Only the dumb money are.
 
schizo said:
That's because the institutions ain't buying (volume wise). Only the dumb money are.
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That's just your opinion and probably your way of rationalizing why the market didn't sell off (your expectation).

Maybe dumb money ain't so dumb after all considering that there's been plenty of low-volume rises on this bull and we keep inching higher.

On a fundamental note - most companies so far are beating expectations on both earnings/revenue, yes?

Don't mistake me for a perma-bull. I also have worries and concerns and can't help to think this may be a bubble, but I also know that markets can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent and I can't ignore the evidence in front of me which tells me the markets are (currently) going up and making ATHs on a daily basis.
 
Laissez Faire said:
I can't ignore the evidence in front of me which tells me the markets are (currently) going up and making ATHs on a daily basis.
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Over the past 2 years though, making ATHs hasn't really been that spectacular. Yes, 2016 and 2017 was good, but for 2018 and 2019, each ATH has been met with some selling, and serious selling in a couple of cases.

Note at 1, it broke the high, then pullback, then higher, but then a severe drop. At 2, a pretty big pullback as well. At 3, yes, we climbed higher for a few weeks, but once again, a pullback. At 4, we didn't even break the high.

So now we are here at ATHs again. Of course the higher lows are obvious as well, but for 2 years now, a new high hasn't really meant much. What this all means? Who knows, but its obvious that breaking highs hasn't lead to huge rallies for the past 2 years.

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Laissez Faire said:
On a fundamental note - most companies so far are beating expectations on both earnings/revenue, yes?

Don't mistake me for a perma-bull. I also have worries and concerns and can't help to think this may be a bubble, but I also know that markets can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent and I can't ignore the evidence in front of me which tells me the markets are (currently) going up and making ATHs on a daily basis.
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Indeed, well said.

Reporting headline might look good but the bar was low, below 2015 earning when the S&P was 2,100ish so yes, looks like a bubble but as you say, markets can remain irrational for a long timeTrading the Indices on Fundamentals
 
Seaweed said:
Over the past 2 years though, making ATHs hasn't really been that spectacular. Yes, 2016 and 2017 was good, but for 2018 and 2019, each ATH has been met with some selling, and serious selling in a couple of cases.

Note at 1, it broke the high, then pullback, then higher, but then a severe drop. At 2, a pretty big pullback as well. At 3, yes, we climbed higher for a few weeks, but once again, a pullback. At 4, we didn't even break the high.

So now we are here at ATHs again. Of course the higher lows are obvious as well, but for 2 years now, a new high hasn't really meant much. What this all means? Who knows, but its obvious that breaking highs hasn't lead to huge rallies for the past 2 years.

View attachment 212342
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The appearance of each peak having a shorter duration between over the last few months, kind of ominous.
Be interesting to see how the current high plays out, if it drops down again that would make it another shorter peak.
 
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