ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Big AAPL said:
Even though my trades tend to last less than a few minutes, there is a potential Island Reversal in the making
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You are showing a daily chart when in fact your time-in-trade is just a few minutes ?
Please explain that logic.
 
Just for the big picture of those that have a much higher time horizon than I. It stills plays a role for smaller time frames like mine. Not saying it will play out, but if it does, then it lays out a roadmap.
 
Big AAPL said:
Just for the big picture of those that have a much higher time horizon than I. It stills plays a role for smaller time frames like mine. Not saying it will play out, but if it does, then it lays out a roadmap.
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I looked at it pretty hard after you pointed it out. I know everybody's bearish, and I assume you meant an IR to the downside, but don't we need a gap down to about 2840 first to start looking at that or... are you thinking an island reversal to the upside? Because that's kinda what it looks like now that you've brought it up. As crazy as that sounds.
 
syswizard said:
Tenny - you are really rambling on here. Bottomline: Analysis-Paralysis syndrome IMHO....especially on such a small range (i.e. doji) day.
FWIW: 80 proved to be a late afternoon resistance level.....but no hard sell-off from that level.
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well it might seem like a ramble but i was just trying to describe the price action as it was happening in the RTH as so far everything that happened was within my expected parameters.
Only slight deviation was a down push PA along with a ceiling formation that happened at 80.00 which in my calculation should not have happened but since it happened in the smaller tick
chart, i did not expect price to take on any serious bear momentum. even if @ 80.00 there was resistance, price would not have broken below 75.00. Only real serious down move with intention should happen @85.00 even then expect price to reverse @71.00 just above the RTH low. So that was something that i was deducing from todays play and as per my calculations only. As you said it was a relatively small range today but it was something that was quite clear even before the open, how it might play out.
 
vanzandt said:
I looked at it pretty hard after you pointed it out. I know everybody's bearish, and I assume you meant an IR to the downside, but don't we need a gap down to about 2840 first to start looking at that or... are you thinking an island reversal to the upside? Because that's kinda what it looks like now that you've brought it up. As crazy as that sounds.
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We need a gap up for this to happen. Not saying it cannot happen....after all, we are only a few percent from all-time highs.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/islandreversal.asp
The strategy to support this price action would be to immediately go long, then go short when the island is formed.
 
everything moving like clockwork so far. down move from 85.00 and breaking most recent swing low fulfilled. the test of RTH low was for the day time play but since it did not happen during the day. My requirement for price to move down from 85.00 is fulfilled now. will move to next phase now. for me it does not matter now if price makes a new low or goes down to 75.00, one requirement for me to hold a bias is fulfilled.
 
orders placed, stop loss set, off to bed now. will check in morning, either will move as per my calculation, or no fill, or loss of 6 points in total for 2 contracts.
 
If you thought the SPX was getting whacked loosing half is it's Sep gains, spare a thought for the NDAQ that's almost 1% down (the Russell is positive). Looks like serious rotation to me.
 
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