ES Journal - 2019/2020

[speedo]

tenny we can only control what we can control and that's our plan, signals and rules. The world and the algo's will do what they do and we have no control over that.

 

[bbpp]

Really? So literally seconds after an ECB member makes a comment about QE the market reacts and EUR/USD (among other traded products) jumps up almost 35 pips, and it is strictly technicals? Sure thing ...

Some people will never understand that fundamentals move the market and TA only works if the fundamentals are within expectation. Any unexpected news event/outcome/comment/tweet and we see spikes like this and depending on the news even much worse than this. Nothing to do with technical analysis at all.

"Some people will never understand that fundamentals move the market and TA only works if the fundamentals are within expectation. "

Not really.If fundamentals moves the market, why this morning euro went up then immediately went down?
Most of times, fundamentals are too vague to determine where exactly market should be valued.This is why this morning euro swung big because people have confusion as what price level should be correct for euro even they have all the fundamentals information. So psychology play a decisive role in market direction, which can be explained by TA.

 

[DevBru]

"Some people will never understand that fundamentals move the market and TA only works if the fundamentals are within expectation. "

Not really.If fundamentals moves the market, why this morning euro went up then immediately went down? I have a short position from a few days ago and didn't cover today. Because I was pretty sure news this morning could not change euro direction.
Most of times, fundamentals are too vague to determine where exactly market should be valued.This is why this morning euro swung big because people have confusion as what price level should be correct for euro. So psychology play a decisive role in market direction, which can be explained by TA.
Euro still has much downside from here.

Nobody said fundamentals always change the markets long term direction, i said fundamentals move the markets and that is exactly what happened here. It spiked up because of the ECB members comment about QE, then went down again since this one comment will not change the long term outlook, it's really not that hard to figure out you know ... One positive comment will not change the markets direction, obviously, only short term, which is exactly what happened here.

By the way, the reason EURO is down is because of fundamentals, economic outlook etc, you do realise that right? Technical analysis to the downside will (sometimes) work until there is enough positive news/outlook on EURO or enough bad news/outlook on USD for it to change direction.

 

[tenny1886]

looks like we will see some down action soon. Not sure if it will continue to AH, or it will be in AH.

 

[syswizard]

looks like we will see some down action soon. Not sure if it will continue to AH, or it will be in AH.

What do you mean ? We are way off the 2:15 PM highs. 10 pts in ES....30 pts in NQ.

 

[tenny1886]

What do you mean ? We are way off the 2:10 PM highs. 10 pts in ES....30 pts in NQ.

This is just an observation and my own views, It is from a longer term chart but since shorting is counter i am expecting a move down to 15.00-10.00 region atleast in RTH or lower if it continues in AH. For me i think momentum changed when a new RTH high was made @30.00 and broke the support @24.00 as per my calculation. But it will be hard task and my PA analysis is not always right when the trend is pretty strong.

 

[bbpp]

Nobody said fundamentals always change the markets long term direction, i said fundamentals move the markets and that is exactly what happened here. It spiked up because of the ECB members comment about QE, then went down again since this one comment will not change the long term outlook, it's really not that hard to figure out you know ... One positive comment will not change the markets direction, obviously, only short term, which is exactly what happened here.

By the way, the reason EURO is down is because of fundamentals, economic outlook etc, you do realise that right? Technical analysis to the downside will (sometimes) work until there is enough positive news/outlook on EURO or enough bad news/outlook on USD for it to change direction.

If fundamentals move market, then when fundamentals don't change, market should stay at the same level.
But you can see that euro continued going down day by day even fundamentals didn't change during this period.
Theoretically, if fundamentals always move market, most of time market should
stay at same level and doesn't move at all. It only moves when fundamentals changes.

 

[DevBru]

If fundamentals move market, then when fundamentals don't change, market should stay at the same level.
But you can see that euro continued going down day by day even fundamentals didn't change during this period.

Well obviously because there still is a negative outlook and it doesn't look like it is going to change any time soon ...

 

[bbpp]

Any negative outlook should have a corresponding price level unless by that negative outlook people still can't determine price level.

 

[vanzandt]

2926 might be a good short for the overnight, but it could very well spike up after hours tonight and then also pre-market tomorrow. Then it should pull back. Tomorrows close should be lower than where we are now.
Unless we get a half point in September, anywhere around here is a good long term "outraday" short. For the Dubai accounts.