ES Journal - 2019/2020

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vanzandt said:
Thats an incredible oversimplification, and its way more involved than that.... but I suspect that's where B1 got it. Its a pretty clever handle really, and B1 does know the game well. Its just his timing that sucks.
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He simply picks a side and then shifts the bias to his position bias.

It's like crazy town around here, seems like only three of us actually witnessed the massacre this guy endured last fall.
 
FriskyCat said:
"Modern markets". The crowd is herded into a compressed range, then a binary move (liquidity pulled at the right time). Did you forget about the move of 250 ES points in 5 days 3 weeks ago? I didn't realize recency bias expired within the month.
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That move was ALL Trump. You know this, right? That was the day Trump said he was imposing tariffs on the remaining China goods. That was pure FA.
 
Overnight said:
That move was ALL Trump. You know this, right? That was the day Trump said he was imposing tariffs on the remaining China goods. That was pure FA.
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Right I understand what you are saying, but you are missing the subtext. There are some reliable internal indicators that I follow and price was deteriorating for weeks prior to that event. The markets have a tendency to "pin" for days/weeks prior to a significant event (i.e. FOMC announcement), then the spring unwinds and we get those binary moves. Yes, Trump calling for additional tariff's is the narrative chasing the selling lower, but I can find PA during the "walk up" rally from Dec 26, 2018 thru early May, 2019 with similar "narrative changers" that had a minimal effect on the PA.
 
FriskyCat said:
...but I can find PA during the "walk up" rally from Dec 26, 2018 thru early May, 2019 with similar "narrative changers" that had a minimal effect on the PA.
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WHAT!!! I do not understand this at all. After all of that down in Q4 2018, how did a walk-up on Dec 26th 2018 to May 2019 occur to you? *sighs* I hope you made good money on it, because I missed it.

Before I go any further, I am going to repost something here I posted elsewhere, because it is fun. We need more fun, less synthahol.

 
Overnight said:
WHAT!!! I do not understand this at all. After all of that down in Q4 2018, how did a walk-up on Dec 26th 2018 to May 2019 occur to you? *sighs* I hope you made good money on it, because I missed it.

Before I go any further, I am going to repost something here I posted elsewhere, because it is fun. We need more fun, less synthahol.
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It's probably a topic for another thread, but I'll just summarize by saying that the "positioning"/"internals" of the market create the initial trap which is unwound by whatever Trump tweet follows. The Mnuchin/Trump daily tariff tweets in 1Q 2019 occurred against a backdrop in which the positioning was still short or continually shorting the reflexive rally off the late 2018 lows. I think you understand what I'm saying.
 
vanzandt said:
And that's not to say it will ensure Trump gets re-elected... but one thing's for sure... he won't get re-elected if we enter a recession. So if the winds of recession pick up... which they kinda are.... there is no doubt in my mind they will let the bottom fall out of the price of unleaded. That'll forestall any macro-economic recessionary forces... at least in the near term.
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Erik Norland, chief economist for CME Group, has concerns about the trade war, but is not so concerned about a negative yield curve in the US right now. Attached below is an CME article where the author believes the US job market should remain steady:

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/...agic-number-for-continued-us-jobs-growth.html
 
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