Highly likely.....the Fed wants to remain independent. Plus the market has regained more than 50% of recent losses....so no sympathy there.....plus tariffs delayed....so no help there. Nothing supports a rate cut right now. That could change of course. Powell might suggest 25 basis points in September and throw the market a bone....but forget the 50 point cut....that's a pipe-dream right now.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Naaa. I just like schooling B1.
Not really, its not that big of a move. This is not an earth shattering prediction that requires any level of skill. We've got the VIX at 18 and right now its anybody's guess as to what goes down near term and how the markets will react.
As opposed to earlier in the year when the markets were looking for any excuse to move higher... now they are in the "any excuse to sell-off" mode. B1 is just doing what B1 does... throwing shit against a wall. One of these eons he's gonna get some that sticks.
WRONG
again.
Unless we get 1/2 point cut. So don't bet the farm just yet. Other than that, you're probably correct.
I just always figured it was a reference to "always in" long one, then sell two to reverse ... what have you got?
My take on his nick is that since he holds a bearish bias, for every long he completes, he will go short twice as hard due to this bias.
It is a curious thing. We have the Sep VX future at 17.85 at the moment. Exactly one week ago it was at 21.20 (peak).
VX seems a toughy to figure out, but the general trend is certainly down.
That's because it moves based on the momentum not so much the price of the S&P, e.g. If there is negligible movement in the S&P, the VIX will gravitate to it's parking position between 14 and 20 regardless the S&P price
Its about machines, mathematics, and manipulation. And what B1 has said in the past regarding his views on things. And he's right.
Lets say on the overnight session for whatever reason, tons of shorts open new positions. Retail shorts. But there are major players that want to get out of their positions. Or perhaps they gradually (slowly) built them that night in anticipation of their move. Buying all the short sells. As the night drones on, more and more shorts pile on. The trap is set. A big player armed with a pile of money and all the right market depth information can step in when the time is right, and in an instant do a buy order that jacks the price up high enough to trigger tons of stops. In essence, (and these numbers are arbitrary for an example only)... they can buy say 2000 contracts driving the price up to a certain level.... and then sell 4000 at that level to all the triggered stops. They sell back the 2000 it took to get em there, and they dump an additional 2000 out of the position they are trying to close. Buy 1, sell 2.
Thats an incredible oversimplification, and its way more involved than that.... but I suspect that's where B1 got it. Its a pretty clever handle really, and B1 does know the game well. Its just his timing that sucks.
I could be wrong. But we've all heard his rants about what happens overnight. And he is in fact right. That's what happens. From time to time at least. Especially on slow nights. Its all math and machines. And the money to make it happen.
"Modern markets". The crowd is herded into a compressed range, then a binary move (liquidity pulled at the right time). Did you forget about the move of 250 ES points in 5 days 3 weeks ago? I didn't realize recency bias expired within the month.
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