ES Journal - 2019/2020

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maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Never! In fact, I may short this thing if we take out 2907 for a scalp. My perversion to the short side not withstanding, Last week’s high is about 2945 and is probably on the radar for testing this week.
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Yeah. I knew earlier it was gonna come out of the gate strong though after Friday, so when I saw that remark by Trump I was hoping for a nice dip at the start to jump in long on. No such luck.

Did you see the size of that protest in Hong Kong?
Million people. Wonder what will happen there.
 
vanzandt said:
Yeah. I knew earlier it was gonna come out of the gate strong though after Friday, so when I saw that remark by Trump I was hoping for a nice dip at the start to jump in long on. No such luck.

Did you see the size of that protest in Hong Kong?
Million people. Wonder what will happen there.
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Difficult situation for the Chinese Government to exit gracefully, especially since they escalated by bringing in a large police / military force.

Also many ways for Trump to put his foot in this mouth here. Trump needs to choose his words carefully on this issue for his own credibility internationally and domestically. Trump also needs to consider the effect of this crisis on US relations with China and Hong Kong. Trump needs to reflect and consider the nuances of this complex situation, which is not something I think first about him.

If the Chinese go heavy handed here, it could backfire in the form of increasing Hong Kong resentment and possibly entrenching a anti-Chinese Government attitude for generations to come. In addition, the view of China’s leadership could diminish and cause less cooperation from other countries on trade and other treaties. In addition, a reduction of tourism is something China particularly does not need right now. In my uninformed opinion, Xi needs to make a gracious concession to the protesters without appearing to be weak and thus potentially encouraging demands that can never be met. A credible third party should be empowered to negotiate the differences between Hong Kong and China, thereby removing XI’s direct exposure to the outcome of the negotiations.
 
vanzandt said:
Trump says he doesn't want to do business with Huawei due to national security concerns
Published 31 min agoUpdated Moments Ago



President Donald Trump said Sunday he doesn't want to do business with Chinese tech giant Huawei, after weekend reports that the administration was planning to extend a reprieve that allows it to buy parts from U.S. companies.

"I don't want to do business at all because it is a national security threat," Trump told reporters. "We'll see what happens. I'm making a decision tomorrow," he added.

The Wall Street Journal and Reuters reported that the Commerce Department was preparing to extend a license for 90-days which would allow Huawei to continue business with U.S. companies to service existing customers. The current agreement is set to end on Monday.

BTFD tonight
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Can you explain how this article leads to your conclusion to BTFD? Do you mean you expect this news to cause a temporary drop that will recover soon? Or do you expect prices to go higher from here?
 
trading_jean said:
Can you explain how this article leads to your conclusion to BTFD? Do you mean you expect this news to cause a temporary drop that will recover soon? Or do you expect prices to go higher from here?
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Sort of. But I was only talking very near term, ie last night's session. I was hoping for a nice little reactionary (but meaningless) "Trump-said" sell-off at the open on low volume. Other than that, the near term bias was certainly up so it would have been sweet had it occurred. No opinion on the rest of the week yet.
 
My best educated hypothesis is that $SPX 3090 will not be denied, but that the next bear swing ~25% decline will follow soon thereafter.

So still on course for $SPX 3090's by end of September or so, followed by decline to the low 2300's to test last year's bear swing low (probably undercut that low by up to 50 points).

Followed by another great bull market - USA! USA!
 
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