ES Journal - 2019/2020

[syswizard]

Wild day...one hour of trading. Let's keep this volatility up.

 

[jl1575]

May you please share one winning short trade you took today? Thank you.

B1: "Headed out for 18---I'm consistently in the 80s now due to my swing speed training. ----Talk to you soon---"
B1: "Bounce is underway. Not certain how far up we go but I suspect a cash gap fill at least either today or tomorrow."

Don't push him. he was out playing golf.

 

[syswizard]

Discipline required today due to the volatility.

 

[syswizard]

Could have done much better....Trade score still below zero....not good.
Still....I'm beating those F'ing lawyers in terms of rate-per-hour....to some extent.

 

[Overnight]

View attachment 206743
Could have done much better....Trade score still below zero....not good.
Still....I'm beating those F'ing lawyers in terms of rate-per-hour....to some extent.

How many contracts do you normally have on per trade, and is your ratio 1:1 on the risk/reward?

 

[Huyang]

Buy1Sell2: I found out your short trades taken during the period from 7/26 to 8/2. No need to share any trades you took today. Please ignore my previous post. Thank you.

 

[NQurious]

I am cognizant of the fact that Trump’s trade war escalation may have caused an instant fundamental change in the market’s outlook and that the price discovery process going forward may not be the one supported by the technical conditions and quantitative data I track.

Fundamentals are typically priced in until a sudden change occurs that the market did not foresee.

Given the tRump presumably wants to be re-elected, the market was figuring that he would at least not escalate his ill-advised trade war (ill-advised as all his advisers advised him not to do it, but the American Idiot did it anyway).

So China devalued the $hit out of the yuan, US labeled China a currency manipulator, and China suspends all further purchases of US agricultural products.

WTF

 

[NQurious]

WTF

That being said, I think we are within hours/days of a very nice buy signal ... seriously. The set up we had as of last Friday has been bullish set up 93.33% of the time. The last time we had the exact same set up was as of the close 12/21/2018/

Now look at 12/24/2018, and look at today. The average 1 month change is +6.11% ...

Strange but true is very often the most dire looking short term declines are weak hands selling to strong more often than not.

EDIT: The flaw in this set up is the buying into the cash close ... historically these set ups perform best when there is a close on low.

 

[FXtrader8911]

My S&P target of 2,791 was reached pre Asia (got to 2,777 before reversing). After Asia open, a rally started. Perhaps we have seen the bottom. In all I had a good session, t/p on several shorts for a +$11k profit on the US session, then pre-Asia the S&P lost a further 2.2% to reach my target, another $6,520k was made. Still holding several shorts but I'm now net Long. The strategy worked well, the remaining shorts are hedged so if we rally from here I'm fine, if we fall further I'm better that fine as the remaining shorts can get some additional profit.

Update
S&P gained back it's pre-Asia losses, gold is $10 down and VIX is tanking... For now, the sell-off is over, let's see what EU players think when LON opens. Current mini-rally is giving me over $10k in unrealised profits

 

[Utah]

Did any of you guys just get stuck in that black swan? Check what just happened at 9:16 EST. That was nuts!!

Maybe "black swan" isn't the right term. But the market just went crazy.

Somebody or something was serious about getting that gap filled. Wow.