ES Journal - 2019/2020

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I expect more downside for the week to come. Without further details...

Both these structures came off all time highs.

upload_2019-8-4_14-26-33.png


It does not quite satisfy the same weekly pattern, but the last time we made all time highs and closed lower it marked out a top in the market. October 2018.

upload_2019-8-4_14-28-21.png


These are weekly charts.

So, technically, I see plenty of short term down side potential. There's also several unfilled gaps below.

Thus, I take the opposing view of NQurious moving forward in that I'm bearish, but also aware of how strong this market is and that it can reverse back up just as fast as it dropped... :)
 
FXtrader8911 said:
I take this as meaning you are net long?
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I’ve been long since soon after the Globex open on Sunday June 2 and continued buying through Monday June 3. Average long ESU is 2730’s. I was posting both here and in discord chat that a tradable bottom was being worked out in real time. I did take partials, e.g. most recently at 3020 which was one of my targets.
 
NQurious said:
None of the 15 times were at all time highs. About half occurred right before the bottom of significant pullbacks, and half marked the near completion of short term pullbacks near rally highs. The last signal was rather recent - 12/21/2018

Yes, in this case the price action of the set up is over the last three trading days and has to do with volatility and range expansion.

As to what I am referring to the set up is quantitative in nature, based on volatility, range, and range expansion, and I track each day’s data from the prior day’s close.

Also of note is the $VIX breaking out to a 40 day highs. This has, since before the 2007 bull market high, been neutral to bullish one month out.

Technically and quantitatively I have nothing but short term bullish indications (1 to 3 month forward look).

I am cognizant of the fact that Trump’s trade war escalation may have caused an instant fundamental change in the market’s outlook and that the price discovery process going forward may not be the one supported by the technical conditions and quantitative data I track. As with all things technical they work until they don’t. And as with all things quant, it merely points to probabilities and not certainties.

So I remain bullish, but my ear is tot he rail and I”m ready to jump out of harm’s way if necessary.
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Thank you, thats very helpful analysis and info. You made a great call with that last bounce at 2730.
 
Laissez Faire said:
So, technically, I see plenty of short term down side potential. There's also several unfilled gaps below.
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I think tomorrow, Monday, have the potential of great volatility and continued down side.

Gameplan for tomorrow:

1. Open Gap Down - I'll be looking for a short entry, but we may first trade up to Friday's Low (13,50) or Close (32,00) depending on where we open.

2. Open Gap Up - I'll also be entering short here on any sign of weakness for at least a move down to 32, but in anticipation of 2895 on the day.

A very strong Open or strong buying (i.e., no short signals) may negate this, but barring any very positive news on the wire, I have the feeling this is how it can play out tomorrow.

Open gaps below:

2895,00
2849,00
2747,75

Should be an exciting week, I think. :)
 
The markets are crashing. I can't find any news that may have caused this, other than the horrible shootings that have happened over the last 2 days. I feel so sad for those families of the victims.
 
Indeed. This is the point where I should just star shorting for a few points here and there. But my rule is to not enter trades I am tired, like ready for bed shit. I am sure I am missing much opportunity.
 
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