While the pullback was deeper than I had expected, I believe it is still just a pullback and that it likely ended today at cash $SPX 2914.11
ES Journal - 2019/2020
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While the pullback was deeper than I had expected, I believe it is still just a pullback and that it likely ended today at cash $SPX 2914.11
Lol... why? I'm not the one here bragging Max. And even at that somewhere down in politics I made it clear I lost money last year. I got heat for it too, but at least I was honest.
B1 has a journal here for the world to see. Why? He claims he is up over 400 points for the year. I'd like to see that. If I ever make such a claim, you can certainly hold me to the fire too. But I don't think its hypocritical of me to call someone out when they are claiming trades that we both know damn well never happened.
A failed rally from 2,914 can't be ruled out but my view is that such rally will fail and 2,791 is likely to be seen before the bull run resumes, in fact, smarter people than me see 2,720 being possible
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/...n-the-sp-while-markets-wrap-a-rough-week.html
If you are a day trader trading the moment, these levels are neither here nor there, hoewever, if trading on a strategy, pivot levels are the trade while intraday movements become less important. My view and play is to unwind my shorts as new relative lows are made and get into a long at each unwind, by 2,791 I should then be net long, if it goes to 2,720 oe even below I'll buy more as 3,100 by year end is probable.
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Yeah Zandty....I'm with you. It's simple stuff to export a trading blotter to Excel. Most platforms support this functionality.
Look at B1 pattern, he does not respond, just posts his views regardless of what anyone posts, wouldn't be surprised if B1 doesn't even read posts. The guy's made some good calls, besides, 400pts in 7 months is not exceptional, nothing to prove here....if he wanted to boast without substantiating then why not say 5,000pts or 6,000pts which is more in line with better traders or even 8,000pts in line with the top traders.
Like you say in your next post; it does make a difference if someone is trying to mentor other people or otherwise influence people who don't know better. I actually received close guidance from someone when I was just starting out and while the advice he gave me was mostly reasonable and not directly harmful- he turned out to be a net loser. I would have appreciated to know that, but he kept that part to himself, until I later found out on my own.
Xela, who was mentioned by @vanzandt, may have been trying to mentor other people? I don't know? B1S2 on the other hand does not seem do that. In fact, he usually tells that his stuff is proprietary and tells people to do their own work when asked about his positions.
I typed this in haste, obviously total points are total points regardless of number of contracts.
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So during my lifetime the set up on the $SPX that exists as of the close on Friday 8/2/2019 has occurred 14 other times, with this being the 15th. This a three day set up with highly specific price action for day 1 and day 2, with day 3 exhibiting one of two valid scenarios. Of the fourteen other instances, one month later the $SPX was down only once from the day of the set up (it was down about 3 3/4% a month later). The other 13 times the cash index was up one month later, with the least gain about 2.25%, the greatest gain almost 18%, and 9 of them +4% or more ...
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
And don't presume the gains were straight up and lower lows non-existent. The set up is for a month out, not Monday ... though this time looks like we should be heading straight up if Friday's high is broken.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
And don't presume the gains were straight up and lower lows non-existent. The set up is for a month out, not Monday ... though this time looks like we should be heading straight up if Friday's high is broken.
Interesting stuff. Could you add any specifics to this SPX setup? The three days are wed, thurs, and Fri? But what about them (collectively or otherwise) are you referring to? Were the 15 times all at all time highs?
None of the 15 times were at all time highs. About half occurred right before the bottom of significant pullbacks, and half marked the near completion of short term pullbacks near rally highs. The last signal was rather recent - 12/21/2018
Yes, in this case the price action of the set up is over the last three trading days and has to do with volatility and range expansion.
As to what I am referring to the set up is quantitative in nature, based on volatility, range, and range expansion, and I track each day’s data from the prior day’s close.
Also of note is the $VIX breaking out to a 40 day highs. This has, since before the 2007 bull market high, been neutral to bullish one month out.
Technically and quantitatively I have nothing but short term bullish indications (1 to 3 month forward look).
I am cognizant of the fact that Trump’s trade war escalation may have caused an instant fundamental change in the market’s outlook and that the price discovery process going forward may not be the one supported by the technical conditions and quantitative data I track. As with all things technical they work until they don’t. And as with all things quant, it merely points to probabilities and not certainties.
So I remain bullish, but my ear is tot he rail and I”m ready to jump out of harm’s way if necessary.
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