ES Journal - 2019/2020

[vanzandt]

Massive downward signals continue here.

2995 should be tagged today

Nowhere to go here really but down.

The next 45 minutes should prove very fruitful for shorts.

B1... Whatever you're "proprietary" method is, you need to go back to the drawing board pal, start from scratch, and take some responsibility for this journal. Its getting ridiculous.

Now I realize 100% that it's your journal and you can write whatever you want... but do you have no shame? I'm sorry B1... but you suck at this stuff and it needs to be documented in the interest of not only "journal integrity", but in fact... "ET integrity". We have no idea who reads this stuff. Sure... buyer beware, but that's not always the case. Especially with folks just starting out. There could be someone new out there that is on the fence about opening a directional position intraday, reads your crap, and goes for it because they give you credence. Again, that's their problem... but still.... have you no pride? Or are you really that stupid? You can't see how you are non-stop wrong!? Every f'ing day. Admit it.

Now considering this week has the potential to be one of the most volatile we've seen in awhile with major earnings on deck, an important summer jobs report, China trade talks kicking off again, Iran doing god knows what, and the most scrutinized FOMC decision of 2019... you might actually see 2950 at some point by Friday B1. And then we'll hear you gloat like you are the greatest market soothsayer of our time, completely ignoring the reality that you have been dead wrong on 90% of every post you have made here since January. I didn't follow you before that. So here ya go, I'll save you some time and do it for you.

BINGO BANGO BONGO

Put me on super-ignore if you want. Truth hurts, but christ-almighty... someone has to say it.

 

[FXtrader8911]

someone has to say it.

I don't think B1 is wrong

 

[FXtrader8911]

Now considering this week has the potential to be one of the most volatile we've seen in awhile

I won't defend B1 as his call had no meat put on it so he might just be making conversation or stirring the pot, but, I do think a downturn goes beyond volatility. The last time we saw new highs, GDP was a full 1% higher than it is now, and companies were reporting earnings 7% higher than recently reported figures. Sentiment creates complacency, this is what leads to bubbles, but fundamentals eventually always win the market. Time for caution.

 

[FriskyCat]

Put me on super-ignore if you want. Truth hurts, but christ-almighty... someone has to say it.

What the "bleeping" hell has taken you so long to get to this point?

 

[NQurious]

SPX is going to 3090’s before 2950’s. ‘Tis written in the sun, the moon, the stars.

And again, that nagging question: Why is the obvious not obvious to so many?

 

[Overnight]

SPX is going to 3090’s before 2950’s. ‘Tis written in the sun, the moon, the stars.

And again, that nagging question: Why is the obvious not obvious to so many?

Hehe, I think it is because we already have someone on here pushing astrological charts to predict market movements at the moment. And most forum users don't like it.

3090 on SPX would mean, ohh, about 3105 on the ES? That's a nice rise.

But be careful if Powell slips up on bit on his press conference on Wed afternoon, and if Mnuchin shoots a Chinese trade diplomat in the the head.

 

[NQurious]

3090 on SPX would mean, ohh, about 3105 on the ES? That's a nice rise

Let’s see, I called the June 3 low pretty much to the minute and ES/SPX is up 300 points from there. Seriously, WTF is wrong with you? We are only 70 points SPX from 3090 - SPX can do that in a day. And that’s only the next hurdle ... the final target before any kind of pullback such as B! Is looking for is closer to 3300. And that 3300 is probably by September/October ... 3090’s are real soon ...

 

[Overnight]

Let’s see, I called the June 3 low pretty much to the minute and ES/SPX is up 300 points from there. Seriously, WTF is wrong with you? We are only 70 points SPX from 3090 - SPX can do that in a day. And that’s only the next hurdle ... the final target before any kind of pullback such as B! Is looking for is closer to 3300. And that 3300 is probably by September/October ... 3090’s are real soon ...

Are you the next person to lose your mind on stuff I type? I was very enamored with your June 3rd call. It was incredible.

My comment was just wondering on how to equate what a rise to 3090 on the SPX would mean for the ES.

What is it with me any my typing that people get so tense? No wonder I try to post funny videos. It offsets all the misunderstanding everyone has. Jeez!

 

[maximumpossiblesuffering]

Let’s see, I called the June 3 low pretty much to the minute and ES/SPX is up 300 points from there. Seriously, WTF is wrong with you? We are only 70 points SPX from 3090 - SPX can do that in a day. And that’s only the next hurdle ... the final target before any kind of pullback such as B! Is looking for is closer to 3300. And that 3300 is probably by September/October ... 3090’s are real soon ...

After the Fed does its thing on Wednesday, say a partial “catchup” of a 1/4 point cut, what’s left? A trade deal with China? I’ll save my eye roll for Wednesday. The market seems to have a lot of good news priced in, especially when compared to other correlated markets. Who is going to be left to have that eureka moment: “Now it is finally safe to buy”? The term structures of correlated markets indicate increased volatility after the Fed announcement, but they have not performed nearly as well as ES, for example. This seems to imply economic fundamentals are lacking and or money is chasing returns in this increasingly low yield environment. We are late in a economic growth cycle with a negative yield curve with traders becoming increasingly complacent, like we are seeing more and more of on ET. What could possibly go wrong?

Then again, liquidity is fuel for the market’s engine. The market’s rise from 2009 is a path littered with the bones of the shorts. Fighting the Fed has not been +EV in the past. The Dot Com Bubble lasted several years beyond “expert expectations” and should serve as a reminder of the adage “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. Also, some fear gauges are still too high for comfort. That said, odds are high I fade a significant range expansion to the upside Wednesday, if offered. Fading range expansions in the direction of a long term established trend is also +EV, short term. If I do this and the trade shows profits, I may scale out in such a way to accommodate multiple time frames. The often touted “normal 10% correction in a bull market” puts ES at bit below 2750, a major support area on the weekly chart. This seems to be a reasonable goal as of now for part of my planned short trade. If a market top is formed this week or soon, we may be saying “Hello” to 2000 or lower, basis ES, in six months or so, given roughly historical moves after market tops.

If the Fed does not cut rates, I would expect a immediate “Taper tantrum” type of selloff in ES, but would actually feel positive about the Fed’s decision. As it is, the Fed’s monetary policy has been perfect up to this point in my opinion.

 

[boyd cross]

out BE