ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Overnight]

Good evening, traders!

Last week opened gap up at all time highs, but sold off for most of the week with volatility increasing daily and peaking on Friday with a close at the day/week lows and selling off further in ETH.

Any expectations for the coming week?

I'm eyeing the 2940-43 as a potential downside target by EOW if we trade lower from here - which is my main hypothesis as of now.

Bah, with the slew of earning coming this week?, and possibilities on U.S. response to Friday's Iran tanker shit and China's supposed promise now " confirmed" to buy more US ags? It is anyone's guess.

 

[NQurious]

I’m curious to know how many traders are watching @Buy1Sell2’s (this) thread but not participating.

#1 financial journal on the interwebs - no telling how many eyes upon it without ever mustering the testicular fortitude to post.

BTW, that close on low cash on Friday was exactly what the market needed ... I suspect that the low, if not in, will be before Monday's cash close and the rally resumes into the fed announcement the week after.

There are no secrets.

 

[NQurious]

Any expectations for the coming week?

I'm eyeing the 2940-43 as a potential downside target by EOW if we trade lower from here - which is my main hypothesis as of now.

I doubt we get lower than the 2950's if this has that much downside left in it. I think Friday's low is close the low of the pullback, and if not, the low should be in by the 7/22 cash close, imo.

 

[Utah]

Looking for an entry to play the gap fill on the ES/NQ/YM. ES fill would be 2972.25. Not sure if this is going to turn and fill it quickly or not. Also, we are close to filling a gap that was left open from around June 30 on the NQ around 7723.

 

[Utah]

Short 2975.75, 5 Micro Contracts. Tight stop. Will bail if it doesn't stay around this entry point.

 

[Utah]

Short 2975.75, 5 Micro Contracts. Tight stop. Will bail if it doesn't stay around this entry point.

Bailed 2977.25. Will get back in if/when it wants to fill the gap. This uptrend looks healthy.

 

[NQurious]

Any expectations for the coming week?

The one caveat to anything I said that is bullish would be that smart money bullishness is now below 30% and dumb money confidence is now +80% and that is exactly where things stood on 4/30. Sentiment readings based on prop model to which I subscribe - not my own.

My own technical reading has me looking for rally into the fed then the selling indicated by current sentiment.

Anything can happen and don't you know it usually does!

 

[Utah]

Good evening, traders!

Last week opened gap up at all time highs, but sold off for most of the week with volatility increasing daily and peaking on Friday with a close at the day/week lows and selling off further in ETH.

Any expectations for the coming week?

I'm eyeing the 2940-43 as a potential downside target by EOW if we trade lower from here - which is my main hypothesis as of now.

I think we need to fill a gap on the NQ around 7723-24. We might head down there since we're so close just to get it over with.

EDIT: And yes, I realize this is an ES trading journal, which is what I trade. My hypothesis is that the indices play off of each other, and since the ES, IMO, normally lags behind the NQ & YM, I will watch for the NQ to start making its way down to fill.

 

[Laissez Faire]

The one caveat to anything I said that is bullish would be that smart money bullishness is now below 30% and dumb money confidence is now +80% and that is exactly where things stood on 4/30. Sentiment readings based on prop model to which I subscribe - not my own.

Interesting. Is this one available to the public?

My own technical reading has me looking for rally into the fed then the selling indicated by current sentiment.

Anything can happen and don't you know it usually does!

The FED meeting is early next week, I believe.

Why not further selling this week into the FED meeting and a rally (assuming that happens which it probably will on a rate cut) starting Monday next week or into the close this Friday?

 

[NQurious]

Interesting. Is this one available to the public?

Yes it is ... https://sentimentrader.com/ ... it is not mine and I am a subscriber. If this violates ET's TOS in anyway I prefer the mods delete the post rather than delete me.

The FED meeting is early next week, I believe.

Why not further selling this week into the FED meeting and a rally (assuming that happens which it probably will on a rate cut) starting Monday next week or into the close this Friday?

Yes 7/30-31 I believe ... anything can happen, of course, but the technical set up I am looking at has a short term low either done on Friday or somtime between now and the next cash close. First target is simply a re-test of the ATH so that could all happen tomorrow and then the selling resume. Maybe the rally is in anticipation of the liquidity nozzle cracking open again and the fed somehow disappoints?

I'm not a fundamentalist trader for the most part, but the trade wars are having a noxious effect and if Powell doesn't show that he is willing to open the water cannons that spout money, then we are likely heading for yet another Republican spawned recession.