ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Overnight said:
You have GOT to be kidding me. I couldn't get access to the 'net here in buttfuck Maine until this morning, but if I could I would have told you THEN that you were nuts. T.
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It popped to 2897 out of the gate... hung out around 2895 for a bit... and proceeded to drop as low as 2882. Pretty solid trade for a Sunday night if you ask me.

Know why I knew it would do that?
Because its easy to predict stupid retail money, and stupid retail money goes "FOMO long" on a Sunday night open based on a Trump Tweet from Friday that in their mind would send the market much higher. And stupid retail money loses 90% of the time. Pretty easy really. No proprietary system required.
 
I feel the posting is disingenuous for this reason...

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/es-journal-2019-2020.328086/page-737#post-4873844

No, that is a close of a first winning trade, and a close of a second losing trade. The distinction is important. It cannot be couched as a single victory. It was, basically, what I have done, but it is NOT through a single trade.

Yes, I will be anal about that.

You won ~70 points over the course of three-to-four weeks, in a market that went down and then came up. THAT is how you couch your victory in my mind. THAT is admirable. Sorry, the reason I feel so strongly about this is because it makes me think that B1 cannot let go the idea of the shorting, and I want to throttle him on this. B1, if you just reverse your thinking, you could make so much more!

Stop shorting a bull market! If I had your skill to spot the down moves I'd be feeling groovy. But you be missing those bull reversals! Blah!
 
Welp, looking back on the Monday's action, the opinion I have is the market uptrend has weakened considerably and now turning bearish. The only bright lights are gold bullish even though it had a down day and Lithium bullish, which is not bad as this has been a dog for numerous months. Copper might be bullish (sitting on fence here) therefore not a reliable market signal doctor, the EV market pulling it up if anything.
Oil with bearish bias.
I doubt mkt will plunge, prolly more likely peel off slowly.
 
El OchoCinco said:
Forgot you shorted right at the intraday top to catch the whole intraday reversal like a Surf genius. The market basically closed where it opened today so a nothing day.
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Actually, I did not. I did however buy the morning low and sell close to the high (stopped out on a trailing stop). ;) The day did play out differently than I expected.

But I felt it was appropriate to give you a little nudge since you were fairly harsh towards those calling a short at that point in time and who actually got it right in the end.
 
Six straight days of higher highs and higher closes ... looks like bull marketing activity to me. Pullbacks happen, but this rally is unlikely to end as a one leg wonder. Any pullback likely to be minor as the massive outraday buy signal soon after the 6/3 Globex open has a first target of 2967.75 basis ESU.

I know a reversal can happen anytime, and I am aware that the gambler's fallacy has us all starting to think we are "due" for a pull back. However, we are one strong RTH session away from the 5/1 high ... we could get there today.
 
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Laissez Faire said:
Actually, I did not. I did however buy the morning low and sell close to the high (stopped out on a trailing stop). ;) The day did play out differently than I expected.

But I felt it was appropriate to give you a little nudge since you were fairly harsh towards those calling a short at that point in time and who actually got it right in the end.
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Well to be fair I was not singling you out, I was calling out those who were picking shorts over the past week when the market had long green bars 4 days in a row :).
 
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