ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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So does this mean you went short at 93?
How about that 2961 high to the low of 2901 on Thursday May 2. That blew past the 50%.
Or how about the 2961 high to the low of 2883 on Sunday May 5 evening. That also blew past 50%
The next low at 2863 on May 7 doesn't make it up to 50%. But hey, looking at my hindsight chart, I see that if I use the high of 2938 on May 6, and the low of 2863 on May 7, I almost touch the 50% on May 8, just below 2900. But you see, now I'm randomly looking for highs and lows that make the 50% work, and still, it didn't hit, so does it count???
Its fun to look at it on the chart, tell me when you're trading it.
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And 59 was HWB 2826 to 2893 ... 60.25 was the recovery price. mark me long here at 2865 and let's see what happens ... stop 2845 profit target 2885 20 up or 20 down which comes first?
Now here is a call I can at least respect. Much wider than your usual stops though.
Probably got there by different means but interesting that we both see the same price.
The levels are just levels if you don't have a plan as to how and under what circumstances and in which direction you'll trade them. There is no magic, though to some it will seem that way at times. I look for pullbacks of 1/3 to 2/3's of a swing, but the HWB's do have an edge over all other pullback extents based on years of tracking pullbacks on my own spreadsheets. But if you are the type of trade who lets the losses run but closes the position for 4 tick profit, there will be no edge.
To be transparent, I am not day trading now. I have a short bias so I bought a bunch of shares in an inverse etf tracking the s&p a while ago. I sat through some heat but now back in the money. I believe we will be in the very least testing the trend start at 2500 area at some point in the future.
This HWB idea is new to me, I read the book NQ recommended and have been studying this level drawing it drom different swings and rth open closes, highs and lows and also trying to see how it matches with PA to the left. I have my own way of reading market action but this is an idea I am currently investigating thats new to me. So far it looks promising.
I don't disagree with this. But if you want people to give you credit, then you have to once again say which HWB's you're trading and where you are getting in and out. I hear Fib guys all the time saying the 61% is golden. But if it blows past that, then the 78. And if that doesn't work, well, the 90 something is golden. So now you probably have 3 stop outs, and if you're not trading at least a 1:3 risk to reward, then you're toast.
Also, when you post just one or two trades, actual trades, but take credit for more, it tends to over inflate whatever win rate you have. What is your win rate by the way?
I notice that on this call you made, with a 20 point stop, its vastly different than your other, more precision trades shall we say, but this also more than likely means you're not scaling out. When you scale out, you have the benefit of saying you're making a higher profit when we have no idea how many you entered for. The scale outs are always just mentioned once the trade works. But lets face it, many times it doesn't even hit your first target, so you lose on the entire trade, whether its 3, 6, 9, or whatever multiple.
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Making observations isn't a bad start, but think about how you're gonna trade it. When it comes time to put on a trade, you will either have to enter at whatever level you're watching, or wait till it does what you want it to do, and then your stop will be even wider.
My advise is take what you know, and start SIM trading it. Doesn't matter if you don't know much. But think like a trader. You will see that often times, the market will do whatever it wants, and your only save will be that you played it right. (ie. you had a solid stop and target) All this predicting of what it will do is secondary to managing the trade. Learn to manage a trade while in SIM. There is no way you will ever have even a 75% win rate. No matter how much you believe these HWB's, or SPX open and close, or whatever else you're looking at, the market will turn on a dime. Don't get caught up in trying to predict. Focus on picking a trade management system that works and sticking to it.
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