ES Journal - 2019/2020

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LoneStarTrader said:
NQ ... Couple of questions:

1. Was the initial pull back from HOD to 29.5 a level that you determined as the PB was being made? I didn't see any prior support or fibs to support that level.

2. Was the retest of 29.5 assertion based on the market's inability to move beyond HOD after the first touch of 29.5?
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1. Was the initial pull back from HOD to 29.5 a level that you determined as the PB was being made? I didn't see any prior support or fibs to support that level.

See chart ... 29.25 was tried three times (actually quite a bit more than that but as the bars bundle 1500 ticks, we see three). That was the last tested level before the pullback.

looking for love.JPG


2. Was the retest of 29.5 assertion based on the market's inability to move beyond HOD after the first touch of 29.5?

Well, I mentioned the 29.25 before the market rallied to test the AM high. I really was expecting 29.25 to trade before the test of the rally high. My expectations are frequently frustrated lol.

I was also surprised that the market sold off from the AM high ... I had expected another test of 39.75, and I would not have been surprised by a sell down form that level. During earnings season, it is usually a bullish gap up that creates the momo to new highs. Since the market was clearly not excited enough this morning to take out the 39.75, it seemed likely to me that it would wait until tomorrow or whenever. But once the market did start down from the 35, then 29.25 seemed more certain. What was no longer certain was whether I'd buy that level or not. It was a buy on the first decline, but I'd have waited for a a reversal look before buying on the second touch. As it happened just a few minutes before the close, I wasn't doing anything.
 
NQurious said:
1. Was the initial pull back from HOD to 29.5 a level that you determined as the PB was being made? I didn't see any prior support or fibs to support that level.

See chart ... 29.25 was tried three times (actually quite a bit more than that but as the bars bundle 1500 ticks, we see three). That was the last tested level before the pullback.
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I saw that area but didn't give it any weight. I suppose anytime market pauses there's potential for a s/r level.

NQurious said:
2. Was the retest of 29.5 assertion based on the market's inability to move beyond HOD after the first touch of 29.5?

Well, I mentioned the 29.25 before the market rallied to test the AM high. I really was expecting 29.25 to trade before the test of the rally high. My expectations are frequently frustrated lol.

I was also surprised that the market sold off from the AM high ... I had expected another test of 39.75, and I would not have been surprised by a sell down form that level. During earnings season, it is usually a bullish gap up that creates the momo to new highs. Since the market was clearly not excited enough this morning to take out the 39.75, it seemed likely to me that it would wait until tomorrow or whenever. But once the market did start down from the 35, then 29.25 seemed more certain. What was no longer certain was whether I'd buy that level or not. It was a buy on the first decline, but I'd have waited for a a reversal look before buying on the second touch. As it happened just a few minutes before the close, I wasn't doing anything.
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Makes sense. Thanks.
 
LoneStarTrader said:
I suppose anytime market pauses there's potential for a s/r level.
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I wouldn't consider that "anytime." Market tried to move below and it couldn't. There was nothing comparable between 29.25 and 35 that I could see other than 32.75, and indeed, 32.75 could have held a shallower pullback and then the rally could have resumed to new highs, but that is not what happened. That left 29.25 as the only visible and logical support target, imo.
 
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