ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I don't see any data points that the FOMC can use to hang there sit tight policy on. Oils is at YTD highs. That's going to show up soon.
So here we are.... markets at all time highs, unemployment at all time lows. Yet the FOMC still has rates at crisis levels.....Independent from politics my a$$....Powell is captive to Trump.
So here we are.... markets at all time highs, unemployment at all time lows. Yet the FOMC still has rates at crisis levels.....Independent from politics my a$$....Powell is captive to Trump.
TA/PA is a gamblers fallacy.
Nothing that is happening in this thread resembles actual trading at all but it sure is entertaining!
Yeah I was thinking about the higher gasoline prices. That's one way to (stealth) slow the economy down, but it also can lead to inflation. I think right now there's an "Iran premium" in RB albeit unfounded imo. MCD just got in bed with AARP to hire retired folks this summer, apparently no one young wants to work for what they pay. That should manifest across all sectors that employ labor at minimum wage. So inflation is by no means dead.
Housing is getting strong again too. Thats always a good time to inch rates up a bit and see what happens.
Trump was crowing about the stock market again yesterday. That takes a lot of balls going into 2020. Imo, he should be hoping for a consolidation at these levels now.... and then another surge up starting next spring. I don't see how things can get much better without inflation becoming a big problem. More robots maybe.
The FOMC is next Wednesday... I expect there might once again be a change of course and a more hawkish narrative.
These bear markets are tricky.
It is easier to fool a man than it is to convince him that he has been fooled, especially when he has been fooled by none other than himself.
Another moron, aka fooled fool earns a block.
No need to refer them here. Those who do not see value in TA and price action are basically saying they do not believe in human nature and mathematics. You cannot unfool one who has fooled himself into thinking he has superior knowledge when in fact he has none.
Worry about your own trading, and ignore/block the fools and morons.
Third year of any President's term after the mid-terms tends to have above average returns, if I am not mistaken. Let's not forget that Christmas Eve Trump came out talking about how cheap stocks were and what a great buy. He may be a moron and a bigot and everything else, but he is the President. And at least for now, an American President still has standing in the world. I'm not going to try to explain it, but it is what it is.
Based on the HWB low that traded 12/24-26, the cash $SPX is likely going straight to 3207.78 and the institutions are buying every pullback the whole way up. I doubt we see any significant pullback before 3200 cash trades. For example, the HWB 12/24 to today is 2629.50 basis ESM ... very unlikely we see a pullback to that HWB before 3200 cash ... heck that's less than 10% from yesterday's cash close.
this 31 is the new HWB, with 30 the likely line in the sand.
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