ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Appreciate the TA lesson. How did you determine the low of 77.75? You were spot on with that level.
prior 4/16 close as of 4 PM Eastern 7677.75 ... Context: Market opened at highs on 4/17 but neither filled the gap nor seriously challenged the opening range high. On such days there is nearly 100% will trade that close.
Add to that this: low around 10:02 79.75 and next lower low at 11:35 78.75 ... with near 100% chance of 77.75 prior close to trade due to reasons noted above based on historical experience (my own of the NQ), the bots had set it up for a triple test low prime, -1, -1 which is why the 79.25 low at approx 12:12 was likely not the low (if you look back at my posts from yesterday I believe I reiterated by buy limits even after that 79.25 print).
The fly in the ointment is that 77.75 did not trade. I actually had thought that based on ES that NQ would be front run and that I should front run the front run but I didn't act and as a result instead getting in at 78.25 my average fill was 82.50 which cost me an extra $85/contract. The dangers of playing on ET and trying to post as close to real time trades as I can.
I have said it before: Algo's make money. They could not do so if the market were random or if technical analysis didn't "work." There is a logic to every tick - anyone who tells you the market is random or filled with "noise" doesn't know the market - at least not the market I know. I have, in this thread, in a very short period of time, picked LOD's and even LOW's within ticks, often to the tick. No way I could do that if the market were some noisy random formless chaos. I'm not special. I observe with the purpose of understanding why the guy who took the other side of my trade took it. That alone will take you a long way past 99.99% of the homegamers trying to make a go in the futures markets.
Think like an algo ... or better yet, think like the guy who has to program a computer to trade profitably or you lose your job. Then you'll know what to start looking for when you watch PA.
And as it happens, a suitable follow up to the immediately prior post is the other chart from today's TA lesson.
The best comment in regard to this chart, as you will see, came from tenny:
The best comment in regard to this chart, as you will see, came from tenny:
You should apply to be the keynote speaker at the next annual meeting. I'm sure they'll appreciate that sentiment.
https://tinyurl.com/y4sammwr
No one else see's the subtle irony of this picture?Happy Easter!
....Far be it for B1 to put all his eggs in one basket.
How much do I get paid for the engagement? If it pays for my airfare, hotel (including unlimited continental breakfast) and incidentals, I'm in.
That's convenient.
No thanks.
Excuse me? Where have I said I didn't say that?
Specifically, I said that my prediction wasn't based on feelings, but on numbers I calculated in advance. I don't trade off feelings. I even elaborated a bit about why in my response to you.
If you showed some more manners and respect, then maybe I would have given you more. Or perhaps you're expecting too much from someone trading from delayed data from stockcharts on his cell phone...
This thread used to be good a few years back, but these days it's mostly about putting others down, 'funny' videos & pictures and hindsight charts. All done during market hours of course.
I trade this setup as well. I believe it works because you are identifying where all the trapped break out traders entered wrong on that first top, now as we re-test it there is a ton of liquidity ready to bail break even and all the predatory traders ready to front run the level as well.
In my opinion this exact setup is what is currently in play on SPX big picture. As we test the high that happened in August.
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