ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Laissez Faire said:
Interesting to see the low probability scenario playing out by the close. These days are somewhat rare and generally not bearish, but set up more up side or rangebound movement in the near future.

As mentioned in another thread, my bet is that a test of the highs from September/October last year is due.

This market have had every opportunity to sell, but it just won't. At least not yet. IMO.
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Signal failed.

Reason? Low probability

Solution? Kevorkian
 
Laissez Faire said:
Interesting to see the low probability scenario playing out by the close.
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destriero said:
Signal failed.

Reason? Low probability
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I agree with Des ... why would an up close before a holiday during a bull market and during a breakout to new highs week while consolidating at the highs and just a stone's throw to the ATH's be the "low probability" scenario? (I don't agree with the Kevorkian comment, as Kevorkian is himself dead and can be of no help to anyone).

Serious question though - I always like to hear others's views. Why did you feel that this was lower probability than a sell off?
 
NQurious said:
I agree with Des ... why would an up close before a holiday during a bull market and during a breakout to new highs week while consolidating at the highs and just a stone's throw to the ATH's be the "low probability" scenario? (I don't agree with the Kevorkian comment, as Kevorkian is himself dead and can be of no help to anyone).

Serious question though - I always like to hear others's views. Why did you feel that this was lower probability than a sell off?
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LF stated low probability to hedge his call. He has never made a call without a caveat. "A top is in unless we take out... the top"

These are calls from an abject p*ssy.

Now, if pressed, it's a low probability as it's trading the LTD into a major holiday. WTF predicts a top on a holiday with spooz 10 points off the high of the move? Who? Someone who has zero skin in the game.

Now, I am short, but I didn't choose today to effect that strategy. I pulled all but $80K out of my IRA and put virtually all of that ($80K) into the following.

GOOGL APR26 1220/1235/1265 231P from 9.05 risk. I did some yesterday near the close and midday today. Natural (231P) and synthetic (2211P/C).
 
destriero said:
LF stated low probability to hedge his call. He has never made a call without a caveat. "A top is in unless we take out... the top"

These are calls from an abject p*ssy.

Now, if pressed, it's a low probability as it's trading the LTD into a major holiday. WTF predicts a top on a holiday with spooz 10 points off the high of the move? Who? Someone who has zero skin in the game.

Now, I am short, but I didn't choose today to effect that strategy. I pulled all but $80K out of my IRA and put virtually all of that ($80K) into the following.

GOOGL APR26 1220/1235/1265 231P from 9.05 risk. I did some yesterday near the close and midday today. Natural (231P) and synthetic (2211P/C).
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BTW, ^this^ trade is (nearly) a double by the close on the 26th.
 
NQurious said:
Serious question though - I always like to hear others's views. Why did you feel that this was lower probability than a sell off?
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I have that other member you're referring to on ignore and don't read or respond to his comments.

If this was a probable scenario then - why didn't you post it in advance?

Instead - you posted this:

@destriero you expect an awful lot from a bunch of guys trying to trade using stockcharts.com delayed data on their flip phones and a copy of This Old House Tips for Ceiling and Floor Restoration for market analysis
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And this:

By resistance, he meant "floor" ... here in the ES threads we use "floor" and "ceiling," not "support" and "resistance."
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I had 2910 as a scenario for the day as posted in advance, but this daily structure is not a common one which is why it wasn't my main scenario. I didn't feel it was a low probability scenario - I calculated it and read the numbers.
 
Can someone asplain to LF that you cannot ignore someone whom has blocked you.

2019-04-18_1408.png
 
Laissez Faire said:
Interesting to see the low probability scenario playing out by the close.
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NQurious said:
Why did you feel that this was lower probability than a sell off?
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Laissez Faire said:
I didn't feel it was a low probability scenario - I calculated it and read the numbers.
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lol ... Errrr ... what? o_O

Laissez Faire said:
If this was a probable scenario then - why didn't you post it in advance?
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Is the the ET version of "I know you are but what am I?

Largely because I really wasn't market participating today save for a stray trade near the end of the day. My mind was in "holiday from the market" mode.

I do manage to make some decent "posts in advance," though. Just yesterday at 12:06 Eastern I posted this:

NQurious said:
2900 ES and 7678 NQ are where I'll buy
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That was 2 1/2 hours or so before the ES traded to a low within just six ticks of my limit order, filling me at 2900, and the NQ traded 78 to the tick. Would you like to borrow my calculator?

But this isn't about me, is it? You made a post that stated that today's close was the low probability scenario. I asked you why you thought that ... you don't owe me or anyone an answer, but why not just keep your non-answer to yourself? Instead you pull a Trump and say "I didn't say that" even though we have a recording of you ... saying exactly that!
 
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