ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Bear Market? Crash? ES will likely finish the week closer to 2900 than 2800, imo ... I base this on the PA visible on a daily chart.
 
NQurious said:
Brooks traders are traders who trade Al Brook's set ups mechanically on 5 minute charts. It goes something like this: If ES appears to be in an uptrend, and pulls back, then the first 5 minute bar that trades higher than the previous 5 minute bar is a High 1(H1) set up. Some Brooks trader's buy that higher bar high expecting the up trend to resume. Many times the pullback has two legs, so that H1 might be stopped out when price trades below the low of either the set up bar or the trigger bar. Now, the next time a 5 minute bar trades higher than the previous bar, there is now an High 2 (H2) set up. Brooks traders buy that higher bar high anticipating the trend to resume.

It is a fairly reliable set up assuming one knows the difference between a trend and a range, and also that one can tell when a pullback is simply a pullback, or when the pullback is the result of price running into potentially formidable resistance.

Sometimes, these trades fail one after another, and so there may be a sequence of long attempts that get stopped out: H1, H2, H3, H4 ... Typically if the 4 th fails, even the dullest realize that the up trend is likely over. Today, for the NQ, the fourth time was the charm:
Trigger Bars were: bar ending 13:50 H1, trigger bar ending 14:30 H2 stopped out, trigger bar ending 14:50 stopped out, and finally trigger bar would have bought on stop at 33.25, with a profit target of MOC of approx 46.50

When two of these type of entries fail, especially if a short fails, then the ensuing move can be quite quick as stops get triggered and traders who trade without stops are forced to cover as the market steams higher.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I do not trade Brook's set ups and any trades I take that match one of his mechanical set ups is purely coincidental. But I do use their failures to guage the current tendency of the market, e.g. I had a post earlier where I mentioned new shorts at 8 with stops at 11> I expected that short to fail, and the PA once the stops were hit was textbook Low 2 (L2) failure (L1, and L2 are simply the downtrend analogues to the above mentioned H1 and H2). None of this is meant to disparage Brooks or those who use his methods. I am making no judgments.
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Al used to use several time frames which makes it a lot easier to determine trend from range. Not sure why he went to the 5 minute exclusively other than he might read a lot into intra bar PA. I know Mike Bruns was good at that but he used multiple time frames. Using one time frame seems to me kind of like driving without side or rear view mirrors, but whatever works for ya.
 
speedo said:
He was a friend and mentor, sadly he died of a brain tumor a couple of years ago.
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That is sad, and I am sorry to hear that. I have a friend, also a trader, who is battling stage 4 gliosarcoma right now.

I did not know your friend. I am something of a student/historian (a bumbling amateur, if you asked me) of trading. I remember running into Mike Bruns's name a few places and when I first saw one of your charts I immediately recognized his influence (how many folks would think to use a 30 WMA anyway?).

Mentors are good to have. I had one early on, but we've sadly been out of touch for quite some time. I am to blame as our contact was all internet/email and I go through periods of time where I completely disconnect from the net except for my trading platform. I disconnected and failed to keep open the line, much to my regret.

I am very sorry for your loss.
 
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